Politics

Will Trump Beat Clinton? A Reliable Model Says Yes

| by Kathryn Schroeder

Stony Brook University Political Science Professor Helmut Norpoth, whose model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election but one since 1912, is certain Republican nominee Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States.​

Norpoth’s Primary Model has been predicting Trump will be victorious over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton since March. Had Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont been the Democratic nominee instead of Clinton, the model also found at that time Trump would have been the winner.

The results from the October forecast have the same findings, with an 87 percent certainty that Trump will be the next president.

"There is nothing to add to or subtract from the March forecast here. It was unconditional, final, and not subject to updating," Norpoth wrote in the report.

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The model finds that Trump will receive 52.5 percent of the two-party popular vote, and Clinton 47.5 percent.

Norpoth’s prediction differs from national polls, which find on average Clinton to win by 3.3 points, according to Real Clear Politics.

But Norpoth is sticking to his Primary Model’s findings.

“If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it,” he told the New York Post. “It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

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Moody’s Analytics, which has picked the winning presidential candidate since 1980, is predicting Clinton will win with 332 electoral votes.

“When people feel better about their personal financial situations, they’re probably more happy with the status quo, and probably more likely to vote for the incumbent,” said Dan White, a senior economist at Moody’s.

But the Moody’s model does not consider the candidates’ personal characteristics, which could change the findings in this volatile election, White said.

Moody’s isn’t alone in predicting a Clinton victory.

FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 72 percent chance of winning, and the New York Times Upshot 84 percent, according to NJ.com.

European betting houses also favor Clinton to win, and the presidential election is proving to be popular with gamblers.

At London-based betting house William Hill, Clinton is favored with 1 to 5 odds; Trump has 7 to 2 odds. Nearly $25 million in wagers have been placed with William Hill for the election.

"The U.S. election campaign has smashed all previous election betting records," William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said.

Norpoth may be alone in predicting a Trump victory, but if he's right, he will “certainly have bragging rights,” Lee Miringoff, director of Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion, told the New York Post.

Sources: The New York Post, Real Clear Politics, The Primary Model, NJ.com / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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