Politics

Political Experts Begin To More Seriously Consider Trump's Chances Of Becoming President

| by Brendan Kelly

Political experts are beginning to consider what seemed very unlikely — that Donald Trump will be our next president.

Many Americans, even President Obama, have doubted the real estate mogul’s chances of becoming commander in chief. 

“He is a great publicity seeker — and at a time when the Republican Party hasn’t really figured out what it’s for as opposed to what it’s against,” the president said in an interview on CBS program “60 Minutes," according to CNBC. “He is, you know, the classic reality-TV character.”

“I don’t think he’ll end up being president of the United States,” Obama added.

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In June, a poll on Fivethirtyeight.com showed that 57 percent of Republicans disliked Trump.

Now, four months later, experts are reconsidering Trump’s chances of becoming president. Despite all of the opposition, Trump is still leading GOP polls.

Nate Silver, founder of Fivethirtyeight.com, put Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination at two percent in August. This week, he increased his prediction to “high single digits.”

“There’s a lot of existential uncertainty here,” Silver said. “If you’re being purely empirical — well, nobody quite like Trump has won a party nomination before, or even come all that close to it. So there’s some universe where his chances are 0 percent.”

Nobody is quite sure what to make of Trump’s chances at this point. As unlikely as it may seem, he continues to lead in the polls. Some say he does have a legitimate chance at the presidency.

David Burstein, the founder of Run For America, a political reform group, says that people should prepare for the possibility that Trump will be the next president of the United States.

“Trump is just as competitive — and perhaps more so — as either John McCain, in 2008, or Mitt Romney, in 2012,” Burstein said.

Part of the reason Trump has been so successful in the race so far, according to Douglas Perry of OregonLive, is that many Republican and Independent voters are looking for an anti-establishment candidate who speaks their mind.

In Florida, a key swing state, Trump is polling better than Florida-based GOP candidates Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

Burstein believes that Trump may be able to attract reality TV viewers who don’t normally pay attention to politics. He added that Trump’s “resonance with today’s version of the American dream is hugely aspirational for people who are unemployed and financially hurting.”

Sources: OregonLive, CNBC, FiveThirtyEight / Photo credit: OregonLive