Politics

Financial Analyst: Clinton Has 75 Percent Chance To Win

| by Nik Bonopartis

National poll numbers have the candidates in a tight race, but a financial analyst says state polls give Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton up to a 75 percent chance to win the presidential election.

Libby Cantrill, an analyst for the investment management firm Pimco, told CNBC that she believes the former Secretary of State will emerge victorious from what's been a long and bruising campaign.

"We're looking at the polling in these crucial swing states of Ohio, of Florida, of North Carolina and of Pennsylvania," Cantrill told CNBC. "Because of Donald Trump's more narrow path to the 270 electoral votes that he needs to get to win the White House, he has to win North Carolina, he has to win Florida, he has to win Ohio."

Other swing states, like North Carolina, look favorable to Clinton because she enjoys big margins among female voters and Hispanic voters, Cantrill said.

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"If you look at the polling in those swing states, if you look at the demographic shifts that are definitely in Democrats' favor, if you look at the underlying fundamentals of the economy, if you look at [Barack] Obama's positive approval rating," Cantrill said odds seem to be in the Democratic candidate's favor.

Most prediction models settled on a Clinton win, though the margins varied widely. Among them is statistician Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight, which issued its final forecast on election day, crediting favorable media stories in the last few days with improving her odds from 65 percent to 70 percent or more.

Despite that, Republican nominee Donald Trump said he was confident heading into Election Day. He dismissed polling numbers in an interview on Fox News, saying he believes media organizations "put out phony numbers."

"We're going to win a lot of states," Trump said. "Who knows what happens ultimately, but we're going to win."

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Sources: CNBC, CNN, Five Thirty Eight / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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