Politics

Most Accurate Poll Of 2012 Shows Trump Leading Clinton

| by Lauren Briggs
Donald Trump speaking at a New Hampshire rallyDonald Trump speaking at a New Hampshire rally

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may be ahead in a majority of national polls, but Republican nominee Donald Trump has surpassed her in the one that most accurately predicted the 2012 presidential election results.

The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP survey, released on Oct. 19, found Trump leading Clinton by 1.3 percent in a four-way matchup in which Trump took in 41.3 percent and Clinton had 40 percent among likely voters. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson had the support of 7.6 percent of respondents, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 5.5 percent.

Trump's lead fell within the 3.6 percent margin of error.

In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton took the lead with 43.6 percent to Trump's 40.6 percent, giving her an addition two-point boost from the poll's September results, in which she led him 44 percent to 43 percent.

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"From the results, it looks as if Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are drawing more support away from Clinton than Trump," said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, the company that conducts the poll.

It is not clear whether any of the voters currently supporting Stein or Johnson will consider casting their ballots for Clinton in November as with the two-way poll, although more Trump supporters enthusiastically back their candidate than Clinton supporters do. A full 67 percent of Trump voters said that they strongly support him, while 58 percent of Clinton supporters said the same of their candidate.

Despite Trump supporters' higher rates of enthusiasm, half of all respondents predicted that Clinton would take the Oval Office, while only 20 percent anticipated a Trump presidency.

The same IBD/TIPP poll that was used in 2012 to track the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney accurately predicted the outcome within one point and skewed toward Romney by only 0.1 percent on average, making it the most accurate poll in that election, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver for The New York Times.

Sources: Investor's Business Daily, The New York Times / Photo credit: Michael Vadon/Wikimedia Commons

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