Politics

Pollster: Trump Could Score Upset In Michigan

| by Robert Fowler

Republican pollster Frank Luntz has alerted his social media followers to pay attention to the Michigan race, stating that Republican nominee Donald Trump could pull off an upset and win the state. Luntz has also noted a surge in Hispanic turnout in Florida and Nevada, a good sign for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

On Nov. 8, Luntz took to social media to announce updates on the state of the presidential election. The pollster signaled that Michigan, a state that had been favored for Clinton, could make a surprise break for Trump.

“BREAKING: Watch Michigan,” Luntz tweeted. “Working-class turnout is looking much higher than expected. Trump may actually have a chance.”

Aggregating the last five state polls released since Nov. 3, Real Clear Politics found that Clinton leads Michigan by an average of 3.4 percentage points. 

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“Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in [Florida] and [Nevada],” Luntz tweeted in an update of his findings. “Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump.”

FiveThirtyEight, the polling website spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver, designates Florida as the single most pivotal state in the 2016 presidential election. It lists Michigan as the third most important and Nevada the 10th most important. Currently, it projects Clinton to win all three battleground states.

Aggregating the last seven states polls released since Nov. 1, Real Clear Politics found that Trump leads Florida by a microscopically slim average of 0.2 percentage points. Based on the last five states polls released since Nov. 1, it found that Trump also leads Nevada by similarly thin 0.8 percentage points. 

Early voting has given indications of a historic Latino turnout in this election. In Florida, the number of Latinos casting an early ballot has increased by 100 percent this election season when compared to 2012, NBC News reports.

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In Las Vegas, early voting hours had to be extended due to the sheer numbers of people waiting in lines, the majority of them Latino. A high turnout of Hispanics has also been noted in early voting lines in Arizona and North Carolina.

GOP strategist Mike Madrid stated that a surge in early voting among Latinos was an indication of a far higher turnout on election day.

“Latinos are overwhelmingly ‘day of’ voters,” Madrid said. “They are a voting bloc that decides late and decisively and it’s on Election Day when you see [these] voters start to show up,” Madrid said. 

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, NBC NewsReal Clear Politics (2) (3), Frank Luntz/Twitter / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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