Politics

Final Moody's Analytics Update Predicts Clinton Victory

| by Robert Fowler

An electoral model that has been proven accurate in every U.S. election in the last 36 years is projecting Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to have a decisive victory on Nov. 8, based on economic factors and the approval rating of outgoing President Barack Obama.

On Nov. 1, Moody’s Analytics released its electoral model for the 2016 presidential race. Moody’s has accurately called every election since 1980, when the model projected former Republican Gov. Ronald Reagan of California to win the presidency, CNN reports.

Moody’s projects Clinton to win the election with 332 electoral votes, leaving GOP nominee Donald Trump with 206 electoral votes. The model predicts that Clinton will secure a win by taking the key battleground states of Florida, Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

The election model bases it predictions largely on economic factors. For its 2016 projections, Moody’s found the U.S. economy is overall growing and that gas prices are down -- favorable conditions for a party aiming to maintain control over the White House.

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“Even those who don’t have a car typically pass a gas station and see prices dropping or falling on a daily basis,” said Dan White, a Moody’s senior economist.

The election model also found that the average American incomes and home prices have been steadily rising, indicating that voters will be ready to reinvest in a Democratic president.

Moody’s also found that President Obama’s approval rating of 55 percent will be an advantage for Clinton, who has ran on the promise of building on his policies.

“Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to [Obama’s] magnitude in their eighth year in office,” White said.

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In its electoral model, Moody’s did note that 2016 has proven to be an unconventional election season and “It is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles.”

The conclusion: The economic and political factors strongly favor Clinton as long as historical trends hold true.

FiveThirtyEight, the polling website spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver, currently projects that Clinton has a 71.8 percent chance of winning while Trump has a 28.2 percent chance of pulling off an upset.

The polling website predicts that Clinton will win with 304.3 electoral votes while Trump will garner 232.2 electoral votes, a slightly closer race than Moody’s has projected.

Aggregating the last seven national polls released since Oct. 25, RealClearPolitics found that Clinton currently leads a four-way race with an average of 2.2 percentage points.

Sources: CNN, FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

Given the historical trends, will Clinton win the 2016 election?
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