Politics

Final Monmouth Poll: Clinton Leads By Six

| by Robert Fowler

New polling indicates that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton could be heading into election day with a 6 percentage point lead over GOP nominee Donald Trump. 

On Nov. 7, a new survey conducted by Monmouth University found that Clinton leads a four-way race with 50 percent support while Trump lags behind with 44 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson garnered 4 percent support while Green Party nominee Jill Stein arrived in last with 1 percent support.

Compared to previous surveys conducted by the same polling group, Clinton’s current lead is smaller than the one she enjoyed before the third and final presidential debate but still higher than the margin of difference between her and Trump before the first debate.

Breaking down the data, Monmouth found that the Trump coalition is comprised of white voters, with a 29 percent edge among white men and a 5 percent lead among white women. Meanwhile, Clinton leads among non-white voters by 66 percentage points.

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Of those polled, 57 percent said that they viewed Clinton as the likely winner, meaning that a portion of Trump supporters believe that he will lose. Among those who predict a Clinton victory, 84 percent said that she will have won fairly. 

“A very small number of voters anticipate a rigged election despite all the buzz about this being a concern,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

On Nov. 5, 2012, the same polling group found that incumbent President Barack Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney were in a stalemate, both garnering 48 percent support. 

Obama proceeded to win that election with 51 percent of the popular vote and 332 electoral votes, according to NBC News.

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FiveThirtyEight, the polling website spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver, who had accurately predicted 49 out of 50 state results in the 2012 race, currently gives Clinton a 68.3 percent chance of winning. They only grant Trump a 31.6 percent chance of victory.

The polling website currently projects Clinton to garner 48.7 percent of the popular vote and roughly 297 electoral votes. 

Sources: FiveThirtyEightMonmouth University (2), NBC News / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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