Politics

Election Day Eve Poll Roundup: Clinton Leads

| by Robert Fowler

The final slate of national polls released before election day indicate a lead for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton with GOP nominee Donald Trump close behind.

On Nov. 6, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that Clinton leads Trump by four percentage points. The former Secretary of State had 44 percent support among likely voters while the business mogul came in second with 40 percent support, NBC News reports.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered 8 percent support altogether. If both third-party candidates were not a factor, the survey found that Clinton would lead Trump by five percentage points.

Breaking down the data, Clinton’s coalition is bolstered by women (15 percentage points more than Trump), African Americans (79 percentage points more than Trump), Latinos (45 percentage points more than Trump) and voters below the age of 34 (23 percentage points more than Trump).

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Meanwhile, Trump’s support is drawn from men (five percentage points more than Clinton), seniors (seven percentage points more than Clinton) and overall whites (15 percent more than Clinton). 

The survey found that 60 percent of whites without a college degree support Trump while 51 percent of whites with a college degree support Clinton.

On Oct. 7, a Bloomberg Politics national poll found Clinton leading a four-way race by three percentage points, scoring 44 percent support while Trump came in behind with 41 percent support. This survey found that the margin between the two major party nominees was unchanged if the third-party candidates were removed.

The survey found the same demographics comprising both Clinton and Trump’s coalitions. It also found that 86 percent of Democratic-leaning respondents support Clinton while 85 percent of Republican-leaning respondents support Trump.

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In terms of favorability, 46 percent of all respondents viewed Clinton positively while 51 percent viewed her negatively. 41 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Trump while 57 percent viewed him negatively.

Aggregating the last 13 national polls released since Nov. 1, RealClearPolitics found that Clinton leads a four-way race by 3.2 percentage points, a similar margin to the Bloomberg poll. Clinton averages with 45.5 percent support, Trump with 42.3 percent while Johnson and Stein account for roughly seven percent of voter support combined.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast currently gives Clinton a 68.5 percent chance of winning on Nov. 8. They give Trump a 31.5 percent chance of victory, projecting that he is likely to lose all of the 10 most important battleground states except Ohio.

Be sure to exercise your constitutional right to vote on Nov. 8. 

Sources: Bloomberg Politics, FiveThirtyEightNBC News, RealClearPolitics / Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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