Politics

Early Voting Numbers Show Strong Democratic Turnout

| by Robert Fowler

A recent study found the demographics of early voters indicates that Democrats are having a strong showing in key battleground states.

As of Oct. 21, 3.3 million registered voters have already turned in their ballots for the election on Nov. 8.

An analysis by data company Catalist found that likely Democratic voters have been turning out in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Utah in stronger numbers than in 2012, CNN reports.

Until the November election, there is no way to tell how many votes each candidate has garnered already, but Catalist examined the party registration, gender, age and race of early voters to determine the turnout strength for each party.

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The data company’s analysis found that the number of registered Democrats who cast their vote early has remained stable in North Carolina, while Republican voters casting a ballot has dropped by roughly 14,500.

The study found that the number of likely Democratic voters casting ballots is ahead of the number of likely Republican voters in Arizona, while the leads the GOP had in Nevada and Utah have been reduced compared to early voting in 2012.

Catalist found that Democratic enthusiasm in Iowa and Ohio is down. The number of Democrats voting early in Iowa has dipped from 53,719 in 2012 to 38,280 this year, which could mean GOP nominee Donald Trump has an edge in that state.

Meanwhile, in Ohio, the number of likely Democratic voters has dropped by 66 percent compared to their 2012 turnout.

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Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton might not even need to win Iowa or Ohio to comfortably declare victory on Nov. 8. Electoral projections found that she can overcome those losses by winning Colorado and Virginia, two states where she is strongly favored.

Other indications point to an improved Democratic turnout in this election cycle. A study conducted by Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that 42.6 percent of newly registered voters this year lean Democrat while only 29 percent lean Republican, Politico reports.

The data firm also found that the percentage of new registered voters in every battleground state tilted Democratic.

FiveThirtyEight, the polling website spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver, currently projects Clinton to win the November election with roughly 327 electoral votes while Trump will garner 210 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.

By examining polling data, the state of the economy and historical trends, the website currently predicts Clinton to win the three most important battleground states: Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Sources: CNN, FiveThirtyEightPolitico / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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