The 2016 presidential election will be won by a Democrat, a leading election forecaster has predicted.
Moody’s Analytics, who has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980, says the Democratic presidential nominee will get 270 electoral votes in 2016, securing a win against the Republican nominee’s 268.
The model used by Moody’s Analytics is economics-based and relies on presidential election results since the 1980 Ronald Reagan-Jimmy Carter election. It predicts voting decisions based on each state’s economic and political situation.
The most important economic variable in the model is the growth in real personal income per household in the two years leading up to the election, Moody’s Analytics states in its report. It also analyzes the job market in each state, including job growth, hours worked, wage growth, and the quality of newly created jobs. How well investments are performing for individuals is also a factor, as well as inflation.
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There has been real household income growth across the country and that favors the incumbent party, the Democrats.
Politics still plays a major role and economics and other factors may swing the vote to either party. The swing states to watch in 2016 include Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Another major factor is the approval rating of the the current president. If Obama’s approval rating rises before the election it may help the Democratic party, but if it falters the Republicans could benefit, reports The Hill.
Moody’s will update its prediction each month until the election in Nov. 2016.
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Photo Source: CNN, Moody's Analytics Screenshot