Politics

Clinton Dips Below 270 Electoral Votes In New Projection

| by Robert Fowler

The latest projections of an Electoral College model found that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is currently predicted to win two electoral votes shy of the 270 necessary to clinch the presidency.

On Nov. 4, polling updates to the CNN “Road to 270” map found that Clinton currently stands to garner 268 electoral votes on election day while GOP nominee Donald Trump is only likely to win 204 electoral votes, CNN reports.

The electoral model is not billed as a definitive prediction of election day results but a snapshot of where the race currently stands. The election map authors found that there have been four new developments that have resulted in Clinton dipping below the 270 electoral threshold.

First, they found that Maine’s 2nd Congressional District has shifted in GOP nominee Donald Trump’s favor. They also found that Ohio and Utah have moved from being battleground states to Republican-leaning. 

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Lastly, they found that New Hampshire, a state that had been previously considered safe for Clinton, has shifted from Democratic-leaning to a new battleground.

This projection does not mean that neither candidate will reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to clinch the presidency. CNN's electoral map withholds the electoral votes of battleground states from their electoral snapshots, meaning that these current projections offer an incomplete picture.

The current electoral college model has 66 electoral votes up for grabs. Trump would need to win virtually all of them to overtake Clinton’s lead. 

The electoral model authors determined that the states that remain a toss-up are Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

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Clinton still leads the majority of national polls, although the presidential race appears to have tightened considerably in the past week.

Aggregating the last seven national polls released since Nov. 1, Real Clear Politics found that Clinton leads a four-way race by an average of only 2.4 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight, the polling website spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver, currently projects Clinton to win 290.7 electoral votes and Trump to garner 246.5 electoral votes. They currently give Clinton a 64.7 percent chance of winning and Trump only a 35.2 percent chance of winning.

Sources: CNN, FiveThirtyEightReal Clear Politics / Photo credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

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