A poll analysis has found that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has a 23 percent chance of receiving an even less share of the popular vote than former Democratic nominee George McGovern, the least successful major party nominee in modern U.S. history.
On Oct. 27, The Huffington Post released a new analysis of Trump’s potential popular vote on election day. The analysis factored in all 87 national polls released since Sept. 19 and weighted them to give recent surveys more influence.
The poll study found that Trump’s support in a four-way race fluctuates between 38 percent to 42 percent. The analysis compared the business mogul’s potential share of the popular vote to McGovern, who was crushed by incumbent President Richard Nixon in the 1972 election.
McGovern only garnered 37.4 percent of the popular vote, the smallest share of the electorate of any major party nominee in modern U.S. history. The benchmark loss drove Democratic lawmakers away from McGovern’s aggressively liberal policies, resulting in a party that pivoted toward the center for decades.
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For Trump to lose worse than McGovern, he would have to win a share of the popular vote that is 1.8 percentage points less than his current average of 39.2 percent support. Based on that, the analysis concluded that he has a 23 percent chance of becoming the worst-performing major nominee in modern U.S. history.
The analysis found that if the November election was only between Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, then his chances of a historic loss would only be 4 percent. However, because Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are unlikely to drop out before Nov. 8, only the 23 percent projection is relevant.
This is not to say that it is impossible for Trump to still rebound and go on to win the presidential election. The business mogul certainly projects confidence that he will prevail.
“Bottom line, we’re going to win,” Trump told his supporters at an Ohio rally on Oct. 20, The Washington Post reports. “We’re going to win. We’re going to win so big. We’re going to win so big.”
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Aggregating the last 10 national polls released since Oct. 23, Real Clear Politics found that Trump currently has an average 40 percent support in a four-way race. Clinton currently has an average 5.8 percentage-point edge over the business mogul.
GOP strategist Steve Schmidt, who had worked on campaigns for both President George W. Bush and former GOP nominee John McCain, has been one of the gravest prognosticators of Trump’s electoral prospects.
“The campaign is over,” Schmidt told MSNBC Oct. 19. The strategist warned that not only could Clinton reach a landslide 400 electoral votes but that the GOP could suffer devastating losses down ballot due to Trump’s sagging prospects.
"The panic is beginning," Schmidt concluded.