The Obama Reelection Campaign Team had some big news on Wednesday. Aside from the Supreme Court’s unexpected decision to uphold the administration's landmark Affordable Care Act in its entirety, Quinnipiac University released a series of bipartisan polls showing the President leading his Republican rival Mitt Romney in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
In Florida, President Obama leads Romney by four points, the smallest margin of any swing state but still outside the poll’s margin of error. It’s interesting that President Obama has been able to remain competitive in a state where the electorate skews older and there exists a large block of conservative, Cuban voters. Also of note in the Sunshine State are Republican Governor Rick Scott’s transparent attempts to purge minority voters from his state’s roles. Team Obama recently enlisted an army of attorneys to serve his cause on election night. Expect many of them to positioned smack dab in the middle of Florida, keeping an eye on any of Gov. Scott’s voter suppression hijinx.
In Pennsylvania, Obama leads by six points. No surprise, considering Republicans have failed to be competitive in this state since George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988. Pennsylvania is known in political circles as “Fool’s Gold for Republicans.” Romney’s team is likely to spend millions on the state without any actual chance of winning the electoral prize.
In Ohio, Obama’s prospects are looking even better as he stands with a commanding nine-point lead. Although President Obama managed to carry the populous rust belt state in 2008, Ohio has certainly been a right-leaning state in recent presidential elections. Romney’s inability to perform in Ohio is likely connected to his infamous “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” Op/Ed article. Many Ohio residents work in the auto industry and it’s unlikely that they will forget that President Obama propped up the American Auto industry while Mitt Romney was lobbying to tear it down.
A closer look at the polls shows that President Obama is benefiting from strong demographic leads among Blacks, Latinos, women and younger voters. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is only performing well among older voters and certain working class Whites. This position might have been a strong one for Romney in 1912, but in 2012 old folks and White guys does not a coalition make.