NFL

NFL Playoff Odds After Week 3

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AFC

After a 2-0 start, the Kansas City Chiefs were only given a 17.6 percent chance of making the playoffs but after a 3rd win they are up +32 percentage points. While the win itself helped, the main reason why their improvement was so marked was the quality of the play offensively and defensively. This ‘helps’ the Chiefs play better in future game simulations. The Chiefs also benefited from losses by the rest of the division – San Diego, Denver and Oakland. The slow-starting Chargers are still favored to ultimately take the division at 63.1 percent, but the Chiefs have to be given proper respect.

In the AFC North, the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all won and all saw improvement in their playoff chances after Week 3 wins. The Steelers have been the most impressive team in the division and are favored to win the division at 58.3 percent. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati but they are projected to finish ahead of the Bengals in the division. Cincinnati has the tougher schedule as last year’s division winner and Carson Palmer has just not performed well at all. Cleveland puts up a solid effort each week but with no wins they are already eliminated from playoff contention in simulations.

The New York Jets defense was not very good without Darrelle Revis in Week 3, but they still had a huge win as the offense lifted the team. The Jets are now leading the AFC East. The Patriots beat Buffalo, but their defense has to be a major concern after allowing 30 points to Buffalo. The Dolphins took the biggest hit dropping nearly 19 percentage points. They had the double whammy of losing at home and losing to a division opponent.

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The AFC South has quickly reverted back to the typical scenario that one has come to expect. Indianapolis looks like the class of the division despite a lack of a running game and running defense. Tennessee and Houston are talented enough to win any game they play, but ultimately they still lay too many eggs every few weeks to take control of the division. The Texans dropped over 30 percentage points for 3 reasons: 1) they lost, 2) the Titans and Colts both won, and 3) they played poorly offensively and defensively. Poor performance often hurts more than the actual loss because it reduces winning percentages in all future games.

AFC
WEEK 3 REVIEW
PLAYOFF
% CHANCE

TEAM
WK 2
WK 3
% DIFF
WIN DIV

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
17.6%
50.0%
32.4%
33.6%

CINCINNATI BENGALS
28.0%
44.5%
16.5%
16.1%

BALTIMORE RAVENS
51.7%
64.0%
12.4%
25.6%

NEW YORK JETS
50.3%
58.2%
8.0%
43.4%

TENNESSEE TITANS
15.5%
23.3%
7.8%
15.5%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
79.5%
84.7%
5.2%
58.3%

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
71.8%
73.0%
1.2%
63.7%

CLEVELAND BROWNS
0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%

BUFFALO BILLS
0.5%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.0%

OAKLAND RAIDERS
4.5%
1.1%
-3.4%
0.6%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
54.4%
50.6%
-3.8%
34.5%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
10.8%
6.5%
-4.3%
4.0%

DENVER BRONCOS
14.8%
4.1%
-10.7%
2.7%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
88.0%
76.6%
-11.4%
63.1%

MIAMI DOLPHINS
53.6%
34.7%
-18.9%
22.0%

HOUSTON TEXANS
58.9%
28.6%
-30.3%
16.8%

NFC

Michael Vick was AccuScore’s pick to start for the Eagles before Kevin Kolb was benched and Vick has more than lived up to our high expectations. He obviously has good chemistry with his big play WRs and he has not lost a step scrambling with the ball. With no real reason to doubt that Vick can maintain his high level of play the Eagles are up +27 percent this week and are the projected NFC East leader with a 50.1 percent chance of taking the division. The Cowboys helped their cause by beating Houston, but they are still 1-2 and as big as the win over the Texans was psychologically, a win over a non-conference opponent just does not help as much as losses within the division or conference can hurt. The Giants keep making a ridiculous number of mental and physical errors. Their playoff chances have dropped nearly 24 percent. Washington was taken out quite easily by St. Louis and their chances are now under 5 percent.

The Seahawks’ upset victory over San Diego helped them improve around 12 percentage points, but the rest of the +27 point improvement comes from the San Francisco disastrous start and their willingness to rely on their more dynamic play-makers like Justin Forsett and Leon Washington over aging veterans like Julius Jones. The San Francisco 49ers plummeted over 30 percentage points. An 0-3 start combined with a surprisingly poor defensive effort in Week 3 all lead to a worst case scenario for San Francisco. Arizona technically won in Week 3 but without Kurt Warner this team is a long shot at making the playoffs even though they are in a very weak division.

No single goat will likely have a bigger impact on a divisional race than Garrett Hartley. His missed OT Field Goal delivered a seismic shift in the NFC South with the Saints going from an 85 percent favorite to win the division do a 56 percent favorite. The Falcons are now in a great position to obviously make the playoffs at nearly 74 percent which is 3rd highest in the NFC. The Saints still have an exceedingly high 86 percent chance to make the playoffs because their schedule has plenty of easy games on it and there is a lack of competition in the NFC for Wild Card spots due to the weakness of the NFC West.

The Vikings won in week 3 but they still saw their playoff chances drop nearly 18 percent because beating Detroit at home was expected. Chicago beating Green Bay was not expected and with the Bears’ emergence and +17.6 percentage point improvement their rise is the Vikings’ loss. Just as important as the Bears’ emergence is the continued lackluster play of the Vikings passing game. With every passing week the simulations rely more on 2010 Season data and less on 2009 data. Green Bay lost at Chicago but except for penalties and their late fumble, they still looked like the team to beat with a dynamic offense and defense.

NFC
WEEK 3 REVIEW
PLAYOFF
% CHANCE

TEAM
WK 2
WK 3
% DIFF
WIN DIV

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
40.6%
67.8%
27.2%
50.1%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
24.8%
51.9%
27.1%
49.5%

ATLANTA FALCONS
49.9%
73.7%
23.8%
41.8%

CHICAGO BEARS
41.3%
58.9%
17.6%
28.2%

DALLAS COWBOYS
41.3%
56.7%
15.3%
37.7%

ST. LOUIS RAMS
1.7%
5.3%
3.6%
4.9%

DETROIT LIONS
0.9%
0.4%
-0.6%
0.1%

ARIZONA CARDINALS
27.8%
26.0%
-1.8%
24.5%

GREEN BAY PACKERS
83.7%
81.1%
-2.5%
58.6%

CAROLINA PANTHERS
6.0%
0.6%
-5.5%
0.1%

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
17.3%
9.1%
-8.2%
2.2%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
97.0%
86.0%
-10.9%
56.0%

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
17.4%
4.6%
-12.9%
1.6%

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
51.1%
33.3%
-17.8%
13.1%

NEW YORK GIANTS
45.2%
21.4%
-23.7%
10.6%

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
54.0%
23.3%
-30.7%
21.1%