NFL

NFL Playoff Shifts After Week 16

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AFC
The Jaguars choked at home against the Redskins, and their playoff chances are now down to just 13 percent ( the chance of Jacksonville beating Houston and Indy losing to Tennessee).  The Colts are heavy double digit favorites at home versus the Titans and should lock up the final playoff spot.  The Baltimore Ravens still have a 25 percent chance of taking the AFC North, but the Steelers have a 75 percent chance of beating Cleveland in Week 17 and winning the division.  Pittsburgh is a 9 point favorite in simulations against the Browns. 

AFC
WEEK 16 REVIEW
PLAYOFF
% CHANCE

TEAM
WK 16
WK 17
% DIFF
WIN DIV

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
63.6%
87.0%
23.5%
87.0%

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
89.7%
100.0%
10.3%
100.0%

NEW YORK JETS
96.3%
100.0%
3.7%
0.0%

BALTIMORE RAVENS
98.8%
100.0%
1.2%
25.0%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
75.0%

TENNESSEE TITANS
1.1%
0.0%
-1.1%
0.0%

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
0.0%

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
11.8%
0.0%
-11.8%
0.0%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
36.8%
13.0%
-23.8%
13.0%

 

NFC
The Giants’ loss to Green Bay combined with the Saints win over Atlanta resulted in New York going from a likely 79 percent playoff participant to a distant 18 percent heading into the final week of the season.  Chicago was very impressive against the Jets, but the Packers have their playoff lives at stake and are the 70 percent favorite at home versus the Bears.  The Giants are expected to take care of business in Week 17 at Washington winning 67 percent of simulations, but a win alone is not enough for New York.  Atlanta is the heavy home favorite playing Carolina, and despite the Week 16 loss the Falcons are 82 percent favorites to win the NFC South.

NFC
WEEK 16 REVIEW
PLAYOFF
% CHANCE

TEAM
WK 16
WK 17
% DIFF
WIN DIV

GREEN BAY PACKERS
22.2%
80.0%
57.8%
0.0%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
29.1%
45.0%
15.9%
45.0%

ST. LOUIS RAMS
42.8%
55.0%
12.2%
55.0%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
97.4%
100.0%
2.6%
18.0%

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
1.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.0%

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
99.9%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%

ATLANTA FALCONS
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
82.0%

CHICAGO BEARS
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
28.1%
0.0%
-28.1%
0.0%

NEW YORK GIANTS
79.4%
18.0%
-61.4%
0.0%