AccuScore’s resident experts are back to make their picks for Week 8 of the NFL season. Last week, Jon and Zach combined to go 4-0. In addition to applying what we know about the teams we pick, we go beyond Advisor and dig into the daily line report to find teams, situations and trends to make sure the picks we give you have the best chance to bring you wins.
Denver at San Francisco Under 41.5 Points
Totals have been very profitable at AccuScore this season with an overall record of 61-39 for all games played this season. AccuScore is 4-2 this season in games involving Denver and 4-3 with games involving the 49ers. In most cases I would disregard a team’s record if they are bringing in a new quarterback, but the 49ers have been dismal with Alex Smith as their starter and we don’t expect much of a change now that David Carr gets the call. Neither team is known for scoring points and AccuScore’s simulations project these teams to combine for only 37 points.
Buffalo +7.5 at Kansas City
As the old saying goes, “you are what your record is,” and AccuScore is 3-1-2 ATS with games involving Buffalo and 2-1-3 in games with the Chiefs. Despite their record, the Bills are a far better team then they are given credit for and took the Ravens to overtime last week. When teams can score, as the Bills can, the points become even more appealing. I also like that it is 7.5 instead of 7 because that half point represents an extra possession.
Miami +1 at Cincinnati
The Dolphins have been road warriors being 3-0 away from home this season. Also a big factor in this pick is the fact that the Bengals just aren’t very good and are still getting too much respect from the bettors. Cincy has lost three straight and Carson Palmer falling far from his former elite status. While the Bengals are just 29th in sacks allowed they have allowed the 11th most QB hits which means teams can still create pressure on the passing game. The Dolphins rank 9th in sacks and have Cameron Wake coming off the edge. Miami is 4-2 ATS this season while Cincy is 2-4 playing right into my belief that Miami is undervalued by bettors while Cincy is overvalued.
Jacksonville at Dallas Under 42.5 Points
AccuScore is 9-4 combined on totals picks involving these 2 teams this season. With David Garrard coming off injury and Dallas losing Tony Romo the environment does not seem like one ripe for high point totals. I expect a more defensive game particularly with the Cowboys likely trying to play closer to the vest with Kitna at the helm.