This is Hoops Karma’s second look at the 2010-11 MVP race.
I’ve included the basic stats for each of the top candidates, plus the efficiency numbers so you can see how well they’re putting those numbers together, plus the impact stats so you can see how each is mathematically impacting the success of their clubs in ways that often aren’t picked up in the normal stats (like defense).
I’m specifically looking for candidates who excel in all three areas so we can rest assured that their positive stats are accurately correlating with positive value. I’ve used the efficiency and impact stats before on several occasions, but if you have questions, please just ask or check this site which explains a lot of them.
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Basic Stats: 16 ppg, 11 apg (2.5 turnovers), 4.6 rpg, 3.1 steals, 48% FG, 48% 3FG
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Efficiency Stats: 53% eFG%, 61% True Shooting %, 53% Assist%, 4.8 Steal%
Impact Stats: 97% PythWin% (123-96 ORtg-DRtg), +32.14 APM, 6.6 Wins Produced (0.463 WP48), 4.3 Win Shares
His basic stats are really good. His efficiency stats are even better. And his impact stats are at crazy high levels, letting you know just how crucial he is to the Hornets’ success. I know they haven’t been as good of late, but the drop-off between Paul and the rest of his teammates is far more extreme than anyone else on this list.
Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
Basic Stats: 20 ppg, 12 rpg (3.6 offensive), 2.1 blocks, 4.3 apg (1.8 turnovers), 52% FG, 83% FT
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Efficiency Stats: 52% eFG%, 58% True Shooting %, 16% Rebounding%
Impact Stats: 94% PythWin% (125-103 ORtg-DRtg), +24.93 APM, 5.7 Wins Produced (0.336 WP48), 4.2 Win Shares
His efficiency and impact stats are absolutely crushing those of his teammates (outside of Lamar Odom, who is a distant second), and the Lakers’ offense doesn’t really work right at all without his great offensive rebounding and passing out of the post. Just watch a game and imagine him being an average offensive rebounder, passer, and all-around scorer, and you’ll see an O that’s OK.
Here’s everyone else. Yes, Paul and Pau are that far ahead of the rest of the league (look at the overall body of work in all three areas); if the trophy was awarded today, it would have to be one of them if it were to actually go to the most valuable player. Don’t get super concerned about the order I’ve put the following 10 players in – it’s approximate.
Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
Basic Stats: 22 ppg, 10 apg (3.4 turnovers), 4.2 rpg, 1.3 steals, 47% FG, 32% 3FG
Efficiency Stats: 52% eFG%, 59% True Shooting %, 45% Assist%
Impact Stats: 78% PythWin% (117-107 ORtg-DRtg), +17.49 APM, 4.6 Wins Produced (0.267 WP48), 3.7 Win Shares
His basic stats and efficiency stats are reasonably near CP’s, but the impact stats are where we start to statistically pick up the nuances Paul possesses over Williams (notably his defense).
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
Basic Stats: 17 ppg, 10 rpg (2.5 offensive), 1.0 blocks, 3.3 apg (1.3 turnovers), 59% FG, 85% FT
Efficiency Stats: 59% eFG%, 63% True Shooting %, 17% Rebounding%, 2.2 Block%
Impact Stats: 95% PythWin% (127-103 ORtg-DRtg), +5.47 APM, 5.6 Wins Produced (0.357 WP48), 4.0 Win Shares
Horford is looking great all around, but note that his Adjusted Plus Minus (APM) is considerably lower than the top candidates on this list. Atlanta did a great job locking him up for the next 5 seasons at only $12 million per.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Basic Stats: 25 ppg, 7 rpg (0.9 offensive), 1.6 blocks plus steals, 55% FG, 39% 3FG, 85% FT
Efficiency Stats: 58% eFG%, 63% True Shooting %, 12% Rebounding%
Impact Stats: 87% PythWin% (116-101 ORtg-DRtg), +25.53 APM, 2.9 Wins Produced (0.187 WP48), 3.5 Win Shares
He’s the best player on a great team, just not as impactful as Paul and Pau.
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Basic Stats: 21 ppg, 12 rpg (2.8 offensive), 2.4 blocks, 12 free throw attempts, 58% FG
Efficiency Stats: 58% eFG%, 59% True Shooting %, 21% Rebounding%, 5.4 Block%
Impact Stats: 89% PythWin% (107-92 ORtg-DRtg), +7.49 APM, 4.6 Wins Produced (0.335 WP48), 2.9 Win Shares
There is no question he is the main reason the Magic’s offense and defense work the way they do. Like Nowitzki, his impact stats don’t reflect the completeness of game that Paul and Pau provide.
Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
Basic Stats: 16 ppg, 10 rpg (1.0 offensive), 2.3 apg (1.6 turnovers), 1.5 steals, 54% FG, 86% FT
Efficiency Stats: 54% eFG%, 59% True Shooting %, 19% Rebounding%, 2.5 Steal%
Impact Stats: 92% PythWin% (111-93 ORtg-DRtg), +10.78 APM, 4.5 Wins Produced (0.331 WP48), 3.0 Win Shares
This one might shock people a little because he’s not a big-time scorer anymore, but it’s hard to argue with how Boston has been playing the last few years under his tireless leadership.
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Basic Stats: 20 ppg, 5 apg (2.3 turnovers), 2.0 steals, 45% FG, 38% 3FG
Efficiency Stats: 55% eFG%, 63% True Shooting %, 26% Assist%, 3.1 Steal%
Impact Stats: 93% PythWin% (123-102 ORtg-DRtg), +17.86 APM, 4.3 Wins Produced (0.319 WP48), 3.6 Win Shares
Probably not who you were expecting from the Spurs, but everything on here speaks to what he’s done for San Antonio this season (his impact stats are ridiculous for a player we don’t expect to see on this list).
Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
Basic Stats: 15 ppg, 12 rpg (4.2 offensive), 1.4 blocks, 1.3 steals, 52% FG
Efficiency Stats: 52% eFG%, 57% True Shooting %, 19% Rebounding%, 2.9 Blocks%, 1.7 Steals%
Impact Stats: 90% PythWin% (117-100 ORtg-DRtg), +8.90 APM, 4.6 Wins Produced (0.307 WP48), 3.0 Win Shares
Same as with Ginobili, you’re expecting someone else from this team, but his impact stats as a whole far outtrump Rose’s, and it’s not like his basic and efficiency stats are slouches.
LeBron James, Miami Heat
Basic Stats: 24 ppg, 6 rpg (0.6 offensive), 7 apg (3.7 turnovers), 1.5 steals, 47% FG, 78% FT
Efficiency Stats: 50% eFG%, 57% True Shooting %, 37% Assist%, 9% Rebounding%
Impact Stats: 81% PythWin% (111-100 ORtg-DRtg), +1.48 APM, 4.9 Wins Produced (0.290 WP48), 3.8 Win Shares
No one wants to see this guy on here, but look at his stats. All of them are great except for the Adjusted Plus Minus (APM), and it’s hard to deny his impact on the suddenly great looking Heat.
Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
Basic Stats: 18 ppg, 11 apg (3.6 turnovers), 51% FG, 32% 3FG, 88% FT
Efficiency Stats: 54% eFG%, 61% True Shooting%, 51% Assist%
Impact Stats: 62% PythWin% (120-116 ORtg-DRtg), +24.43 APM, 3.8 Wins Produced (0.280 WP48), 2.3 Win Shares
Good looking season, but you can see where certain numbers aren’t at an MVP level.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Basic Stats: 24 ppg, 5.5 rpg (1.8 offensive), 9 apg (4.1 turnovers), 2.2 steals, 44% FG, 87% FT
Efficiency Stats: 45% eFG%, 54% True Shooting %, 45% Assist%, 3.0 Steals%
Impact Stats: 56% PythWin% (110-108 ORtg-DRtg), +3.75 APM, 3.9 Wins Produced (0.230 WP48), 2.9 Win Shares
You’ll notice his occasional sloppiness of play results in lower efficiency and impact stats compared to many others on this list.
I know people always assume the league’s top scorers have to be in the MVP talks, so I’ll briefly discuss why Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant are not in my top 12.
Durant has been a big-time scorer, but his overall shooting numbers are bad: 42% FG, 28% 3FG, 46% eFG, 55% TS%. His 7 rpg are fine, but he has more turnovers than assists, and his advanced stats are way behind those of teammate Westbrook’s, and Westbrook barely made the list.
Kobe is in a similar boat. Despite scoring 27 ppg, he’s shooting 44% FG, 31% 3FG, 47% eFG, and 55% TS% (all four are lower than his team’s averages). He has far more turnovers per assist than Laker power forwards Gasol and Odom, and his collection of impact stats are miles behind those two (including an absolutely terrible -5.71 APM).