Mavericks

Heat vs. Mavs: Using Expected Value to Preview 2011 NBA Finals

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On the morning of the 2011 NBA Finals, a breakdown of both teams, Back Picks Style, in the 2011 playoffs. The glossary of terms is below. Click on the header to sort by column.

DALLAS MAVERICKS 2011 Playoffs:

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Dallas Mavericks
Def
Off
EV
Pos
Opp FG%
FTO
Err
OC
FD
Load
DUsg
Pts
Reb
TOV
TS%
% 2 FG
%3 FG

Brian Cardinal
8.8
13.3
22.2
12
.000
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
8.1
16.2
10.8
0.0
1.500
-
0%

Dirk Nowitzki
-0.5
6.1
5.5
1048
.434
0.9
1.9
6.4
8.0
42.7
17.4
26.3
7.0
3.0
.640
13%
44%

Tyson Chandler
1.2
3.5
4.7
818
.413
1.6
0.5
0.6
4.5
12.5
26.0
8.6
11.0
0.9
.632
29%
-

Jason Terry
-1.2
3.7
2.2
877
.374
2.2
2.4
6.4
3.9
33.7
16.3
19.2
2.1
1.8
.604
7%
55%

Jason Kidd
2.3
-0.5
2.0
933
.417
4.1
1.5
4.8
1.3
23.0
26.4
10.3
4.7
2.4
.553
11%
45%

Shawn Marion
0.0
-0.8
-0.7
855
.413
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.5
24.1
18.3
12.7
7.2
1.7
.502
18%
-

Jose Barea
-3.5
2.3
-1.0
471
.560
1.7
1.4
7.0
5.1
37.3
16.4
18.4
3.6
1.9
.520
2%
40%

Brendan Haywood
-3.0
0.2
-2.8
447
.399
0.9
1.7
0.0
4.0
12.6
27.4
7.4
9.5
1.7
.576
53%
-

Peja Stojak.
-2.9
-1.3
-4.2
580
.545
2.1
2.5
1.0
0.9
22.7
14.3
14.7
3.2
0.8
.555
37%
66%

Corey Brewer
-0.6
-7.5
-8.0
42
.474
9.4
4.7
0.0
2.4
25.9
52.5
14.1
3.1
3.1
.500
33%
100%

DeShawn Steven.
-2.5
-5.8
-8.4
413
.462
2.7
1.7
1.7
1.5
19.0
19.2
8.2
1.6
1.4
.416
0%
50%

Ian Mahinmi
-31.5
-0.2
-31.6
12
1.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.5
14.9
39.9
11.6
5.8
0.0
.568
-
-

MIAMI HEAT 2011 Playoffs:

Miami Heat
Def
Off
EV
Pos
Opp FG%
FTO
Err
OC
FD
Load
DUsg
Pts
Reb
TOV
TS%
% 2 FG
%3 FG

LeBron James
3.1
6.5
9.7
1179
.302
2.5
2.2
9.8
8.0
42.5
20.7
21.3
7.3
2.3
.569
4%
14%

Dwyane Wade
1.8
2.9
4.8
1061
.302
2.7
2.0
7.0
6.9
42.0
16.3
21.6
6.5
3.0
.552
7%
0%

Joel Anthony
5.3
-2.4
3.0
806
.270
1.2
1.1
0.2
1.6
7.8
28.4
4.0
6.1
1.0
.514
36%
-

Chris Bosh
0.0
0.2
0.1
1069
.448
1.4
1.6
1.2
5.0
26.4
24.0
16.8
8.1
1.6
.577
44%
-

James Jones
-0.7
0.8
0.0
444
.430
2.0
1.8
0.5
0.7
14.1
18.4
11.3
4.4
0.6
.688
14%
76%

Mike Miller
2.0
-2.6
-0.5
219
.368
1.8
0.5
1.4
0.0
16.9
10.1
7.7
9.5
1.2
.433
0%
0%

Mario Chalmers
-2.1
-2.5
-4.4
561
.453
3.6
2.7
2.7
1.8
20.3
25.7
10.6
2.8
2.1
.568
13%
72%

Zydrunas Ilgauskas
-2.7
-2.4
-5.0
227
.421
0.4
0.4
0.0
1.8
18.3
15.4
9.0
9.0
2.5
.490
36%
-

Juwan Howard
-3.1
-3.3
-6.2
54
.500
0.0
4.6
0.0
1.8
14.9
12.0
9.4
4.7
1.2
.565
0%
-

Udonis Haslem
0.9
-7.0
-6.3
203
.381
3.9
3.0
0.0
1.5
17.8
27.1
7.3
7.3
1.9
.381
67%
-

Mike Bibby
-3.0
-6.8
-9.7
626
.431
1.0
2.2
2.1
0.3
16.7
20.6
5.5
3.0
1.4
.347
13%
83%

Jamaal Magloire
-8.7
-4.8
-13.4
31
.750
3.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
16.2
23.9
8.1
10.1
2.0
.500
50%
-

Eddie House
-2.9
-20.4
-23.3
42
.667
4.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.5
20.0
3.1
1.6
4.7
.125
0%
-

Glossary:
Def = Defensive Expected Value component
Off = Offensive Expected Value component
Pos = Possessions played
Opp FG% = FG% Against
FTO = Forced Turnovers per 100
Err = Defensive errors per 100
FD = Fouls Drawn per 100
Pts/Reb/TOV are per 36 minutes
% 2FG = % of 2-point field goals from Helped Offense
% 3FG = % of 3-point field goals from Helped Offense

 

Observations

  • LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are a two-headed monster for Miami, and Dirk Nowitzki has carried the same load for Dallas. But after that, the Mavs rely more on Jose Barea and Jason Terry to pressure the defense than the Heat do anyone else.
  • Chris Bosh makes nearly half his shots off of Opportunities Created for him. Take those away and Bosh will be limited…but can Dallas stop Wade and James from creating?
  • How often will Miami double Dirk? He averaged 8.0 Opportunities Created/100 in the last two series after averaging 3.8 against Portland in the opening round.
  • Jason Terry has been a certifiable second option in the postseason — his per 36 scoring, efficiency and creation rates are comparable to Wade’s.
  • Tyson Chandler‘s always excellent offensive efficiency stems from athleticism around the hoop and activity on the glass. Does Miami have anyone to contain him?
  • Dallas has four viable creators to the Heat’s two, but Miami might be the best rotating team in the league. All six of the Mavs 3-point shooters make a sizeable chunk of 3′s after creation…who will win that battle?
  • Jason Kidd has been incredibly active on defense, boasting a DUsg comparable to the Maverick’s centers with his usually effective results. Will he guard Wade (and even James in this series?) Can he? He’ll probably have to for Terry to play the same role.
  • Speaking of defense, Joel Anthony has been a defensive dynamo, with the highest DUsg (and Defensive EV) of anyone in these Finals.
  • Some of the players Peja Stojakovic has had to guard while providing spacing on offense: Nicolas BatumRon ArtestThabo Sefolosha. But Dallas can’t hide him on defense against James or Wade.
  • LeBron’s FG% against in last year’s playoffs was 27.6%. 29.8% in this year’s regular season sample. It’s 30.2% entering the Finals. Yes, he’s hard to score on. But the Bill Russell-Trophy Question is, can he slow down Dirk?

It looks like Dirk will need a huge offensive series while Jason Kidd will need a big defensive series for the Mavs to win. It’s doable, as they have a size advantage and better offensive balance/depth, but without home court, Miami has more room for error.

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