NFL

2010-11 NFL Efficiency Rankings - Week 8

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With the exception of San Diego still up at number 2 this week, the rankings are starting to make sense. Or, is that perception is catching up with the stats? There were some big movers this week, including Tennessee, New England, Dallas, Atlanta, and Chicago.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

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Click on the table headers to sort.

RANK
TEAM
LAST WK
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK

1
PIT
4
0.81
0.53
2
3

2
SD
1
0.81
0.37
1
5

3
NYG
2
0.75
0.53
7
2

4
IND
3
0.71
0.53
4
13

5
KC
6
0.67
0.53
10
9

6
TEN
12
0.65
0.52
13
1

7
GB
5
0.64
0.48
5
15

8
PHI
9
0.61
0.48
9
7

9
MIA
13
0.60
0.54
16
18

10
HOU
8
0.59
0.57
3
26

11
NE
18
0.55
0.53
17
14

12
WAS
11
0.54
0.55
14
20

13
BAL
14
0.54
0.50
18
11

14
DAL
7
0.52
0.58
6
21

15
ATL
24
0.52
0.49
11
23

16
CHI
10
0.50
0.51
28
6

17
CIN
21
0.48
0.47
15
25

18
NYJ
20
0.48
0.48
21
10

19
CLE
25
0.47
0.55
22
17

20
NO
17
0.46
0.40
12
28

21
MIN
16
0.45
0.51
27
8

22
DEN
19
0.41
0.47
8
30

23
TB
28
0.40
0.48
19
29

24
SEA
15
0.39
0.43
26
12

25
SF
22
0.38
0.47
23
19

26
CAR
26
0.37
0.50
31
4

27
DET
23
0.36
0.54
20
24

28
BUF
30
0.30
0.51
25
32

29
STL
29
0.26
0.43
30
22

30
OAK
31
0.26
0.47
24
27

31
JAC
27
0.25
0.59
29
31

32
ARI
32
0.23
0.45
32
16

Here are the team efficiency rankings through week 7.

TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE

ARI
4.2
4.7
4.2
1.7
5.9
4.3
3.2
0.49

ATL
6.2
4.2
2.0
0.3
7.0
4.1
4.5
0.36

BAL
6.4
3.6
2.5
0.8
6.0
4.2
2.2
0.39

BUF
5.6
4.6
3.3
0.7
7.0
4.8
0.6
0.35

CAR
4.7
3.5
5.2
2.9
5.5
3.9
5.2
0.40

CHI
5.7
4.0
5.6
0.3
5.5
3.6
3.4
0.36

CIN
6.4
3.8
2.5
1.6
6.3
4.5
3.9
0.40

CLE
5.9
3.9
3.8
1.8
6.9
3.9
3.4
0.42

DAL
6.8
3.9
2.8
0.0
6.5
4.5
2.9
0.61

DEN
6.9
2.9
1.4
1.7
6.8
4.8
2.5
0.53

DET
5.7
3.5
3.1
1.0
6.4
4.9
3.6
0.55

GB
7.0
4.4
3.8
0.6
5.5
4.7
4.0
0.43

HOU
6.7
5.2
2.5
0.3
7.5
4.2
1.7
0.36

IND
7.3
3.7
0.8
1.2
6.0
4.8
2.6
0.32

JAC
5.5
4.2
5.4
1.1
8.1
4.6
1.9
0.39

KC
6.4
5.0
2.0
0.3
6.2
3.7
2.2
0.36

MIA
6.3
3.8
2.8
1.0
6.5
3.8
2.2
0.23

MIN
5.7
4.7
5.6
1.4
5.9
3.8
2.9
0.46

NE
6.1
4.1
2.0
0.0
6.8
3.8
3.4
0.39

NO
6.6
3.9
3.5
1.1
5.9
4.0
2.0
0.43

NYG
6.8
4.8
4.6
1.8
5.0
3.5
3.1
0.45

NYJ
5.6
4.9
1.1
1.3
6.1
3.5
2.3
0.55

OAK
5.5
4.7
3.8
0.8
6.2
5.0
1.5
0.63

PHI
6.3
4.9
1.6
0.8
5.6
4.0
4.6
0.58

PIT
7.4
3.9
3.7
1.4
5.9
2.8
3.6
0.32

SD
7.6
4.1
2.2
1.9
4.7
3.5
3.3
0.38

SF
5.7
4.1
3.9
0.9
6.4
3.6
3.1
0.56

SEA
5.4
3.7
2.9
0.0
5.9
3.3
2.4
0.46

STL
5.0
3.8
3.1
0.0
5.6
4.6
1.9
0.42

TB
5.6
4.0
1.4
0.7
6.4
5.3
5.6
0.38

TEN
6.4
4.3
2.9
1.2
5.3
4.0
4.3
0.54

WAS
6.3
4.1
2.8
1.2
6.4
4.7
2.6
0.35

Avg
6.1
4.2
3.1
1.0
6.2
4.1
3.0
0.43