Could Japan's Nuclear Crisis Happen in U.S.?
By Joel Reynolds
As tragedy unfolds in Japan, as the specter of nuclear disaster intensifies in the wake of the 9.0 magnitude Sendai earthquake, there is little comfort in hearing the glib assurances from nuclear industry representatives and government officials in the United States that it can’t happen here.
Our plants are better designed, they say, our system of government oversight is stricter, and a quake of that magnitude won’t happen along our California coast. And if you believe that, I have a fail-safe blow-out preventer from the Gulf of Mexico I want to sell you.
Take, for example, this morning’s comments on MSNBC (see March 15, 2011 clip Is U.S. prepared for Japan-like event?) from Mike Dayton, Acting Secretary of California Emergency Management. According to Mr. Dayton, referring to the 9.0 magnitude quake in Japan, “we will not see an earthquake of that severity.”
Never mind that that is exactly what the Japanese thought before last week’s quake proved them wrong.
Or this, also from Mr. Dayton, referring to the projected earthquake intensity that the Diablo Canyon and San Onofre reactors, both located on our California coast, were designed to withstand: “It’s important to know that . . . the magnitude that [the earthquakes] were projected was below what those facilities were designed to withstand. So they’ve gone above and beyond in California on what the expected quake is.”
Never mind that that is exactly what the Japanese thought before last week’s quake proved them wrong. The design basis earthquake for the Fukushima reactors was Magnitude 7.9 – exponentially less powerful than the 9.0 Magnitude Sendai quake.
It is worth mentioning also that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission doesn’t even require emergency response planning for the situation now unfolding in Japan – that is, a radiological accident caused by an earthquake. In 1986, when this very concern was raised by the San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace in connection with licensing of Diablo Canyon, they were told by the NRC that such an occurrence was of such low probability that it needn’t – indeed, it couldn’t – be considered. And this inexplicable result was subsequently upheld in a 5-4 decision of the federal court of appeals in Washington, D.C.
As Japan struggles to contain four out-of-control reactors at Fukushima in the wake of last week’s Sendai earthquake, government officials like Mr. Dayton and industry representatives eager to assure us that it can’t happen here should save their breath.
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Yes, it can happen here, and, it will. The only thing that is not certain about the prospect is the timing. When seems to be the only thing that we cannot be certain of.
And, yes, if it happens along the San Andres fault line, a great number of people will die. Can our nuclear reactors survive a 9.0 Richter quake? I really don't know. To err on the side of caution here might just be warranted, though.
Design nuclear reactors to survive a 10.0 Richter quake, and, a 9.0 might just be survivable. I have never found a reactor design for a 10.0 quake, so, if anyone has one, I would be very interested in checking it out.
The reality, though, is that should such an event occur, the death toll from all of the other events associated with it would cause a huge amount of death and destruction. The nuclear radiation would just add the icing on the cake, so to speak.
It would be a really good idea to retrofit existing reactors with an oversized convection cooling system that is designed to survive such an event and cool the core. No electricity is required for such a system, just natural convection cooling. Would add to the cost of a system, but, you can ask the Japanese about the cost of not doing so, when they recover and are able to respond.
Anyway, our thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Japan as they wrestle with this huge national catastrophe.