AccuScore’s resident experts are back to make their picks for Week 9 of the college football season. Last week Jon and Zach combined to go 3-1. In addition to applying what we know about the teams we pick, we go beyond Advisor and dig into the daily line report to find teams, situations and trends to make sure the picks we give you have the best chance to bring you wins.
Louisville/Pitt over 56.5
If an optimist were to make one kind of bet he would choose the over so he could always root for points. It’s also the only bet that can be won while the game is still going on. This season AccuScore is 4-2 in over/under projections in games when the Cardinals play, and has the same record in the same situation in games involving Pitt. This season the Panthers are hardly a scoring machine, but they have found their mojo lately scoring 86 points over their last 2 games. On the other hand, Louisville games have brought plenty of scoring with four of their last five games producing eight or more touchdowns. In addition to having a combined record of 8-4 in totals with these two teams, this game has over a 58 percent chance of going over the 56.5 points.
Clemson –6.5 at Boston College
This is the point of the year when teams have shown whether they play to the simulations or if they are unpredictable. There were not many expectations this year for Boston College or Clemson, but we are pleased that they are playing to their simulations. In picking just game winners, AccuScore is 11-1 this season with these two teams. More importantly, AccuScore is 9-3 against the number in games involving BC and Clemson. ACC conference games are our most accurate conference this season against the spread posting 65 percent accuracy, returning +620 units. These seasonal trends help support a very strong game forecast where Clemson covers the 6.5 in 59.8 percent of simulations.
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West Virginia -6.5 at Connecticut
AccuScore’s line in this game is West Virginia -10 covering the -6.5 line over 58 percent of the time. The computers have been accurate with both teams with a 5-1 record on West Virginia game winners and 4-2 against the spread with UCONN. While the Mountaineers played poorly in a loss to Syracuse last week, the defense is still very good ranking 6th nationally in scoring defense. Offensive inconsistencies happen with young quarterbacks, but Geno Smith has shown he has talent. UCONN on the other hand does not have offensive talent. Last week the Huskies passed over former starter Zach Frazier in favor of redshirt freshman Michael Box. This was actually the second time Frazier was replaced this season. Now Box is out with a concussion and Frazier is back starting. I believe in the Mountaineer defense, and for Smith and the offense to have a bit of a bounce back game.
Oklahoma State -5 at Kansas State
This is another game where the AccuScore computers have been very accurate going 9-3 combined against the spread in games involving the Cowboys and Wildcats. While the betting line is -5.5, the sim line is -9 even with star receiver Justin Blackmon suspended. The big keys will be Brandon Weeden and ball security. When the Cowboys have a positive turnover margin they win over 80 percent of the time. Kansas State also has the 118th ranked rush defense getting completely gashed by Nebraska and allowing 250 yards to Baylor’s Jay Finley. Kendall Hunter should put up a huge day, which will in turn help Weeden take care of the football.