China's Cooperation is Essential in the Global Warming Fight

China yesterday announced that Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the
Copenhagen climate summit and that he will bring with him a target for
China of reducing carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels
by 2020. Coming a day after the announcement across the Pacific that
President Obama will attend the beginning of the summit, bringing a
commitment to reduce U.S. emissions "in the range of 17%" from 2005
levels by 2020, this means that we now know what the world's two
largest emitters will be bringing to the table when the world's
countries gather in Copenhagen.

The official announcement (in Chinese here)
notes that on November 25, Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Council
standing committee met and decided upon the 2020 target and
corresponding measures to achieve it. Of note are the following
points:

1.) What exactly does the carbon intensity target cover?
China will reduce its carbon intensity, the CO2 emitted per unit GDP,
by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. This carbon intensity
target will measure only the CO2 emissions from energy consumption and industrial activity,
the source of most of China's emissions, and does not take into account
efforts to reduce emissions or increase sinks from land use and
forestry. This makes sense given that estimating emissions from land
use and forestry is less precise than measuring emissions from fuel
combustion and industrial activity, both of which are also more tightly
linked to GDP than land use and forestry.

Second, the International Energy Agency has noted that the commitments from China and the US are roughly in line
with the actions they have estimated to be necessary to reach a
concentration of 450 parts CO2 per million, what scientists have deemed
is necessary to keep global temperatures from rising more than two
degrees Celsius. While we would hope that both China and the U.S. will
seek to raise the level of their ambition, both proposals are
substantial and require real improvements in energy efficiency and
low-carbon energy to achieve.

The other important thing to remember is the significance of the
carbon intensity target for creating the proper framework and
incentives for reducing emissions. As noted above, a carbon intensity
target will require each province and major enterprise to measure,
report and reduce their CO2 emissions and energy consumption,
year-on-year, acting as a driver for greater efficiency and
renewables. In this way, the carbon intensity target is similar to the
US greenhouse gas mandatory reporting rule or the cap-and-trade system
in the current climate legislation before Congress, which put in place
the proper incentives and systems to transition to a low-carbon, clean
energy economy. Provinces, local governments and enterprises will need
to establish and improve systems for measuring and reporting emissions,
and there will be increasing pressure on these enterprises and
provinces to enact measures within their development plans for making
continuous improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy. At
the national level, China will need to continue and accelerate its
policies to boost energy efficiency and renewables, and it will need to
build its capacity to measure and report emissions for its national
greenhouse gas inventory on a yearly basis (something which EPA and
China's National Development and Reform Commission have recently agreed to cooperate on).

Just as important as the targets they have set for themselves, China
and the US must continue to accelerate their efforts to develop low
carbon economies based on energy efficiency, renewables, and the
development of clean technologies such as smart grids and electric
vehicles. Both countries stand to benefit from the transition to a
clean energy economy, by growing new clean industries and jobs,
reducing their independence on dirty fossil fuels, and reducing their
contribution to climate change and environmental damage. China can
achieve a substantial reduction in its carbon intensity while
continuing to grow its economy and providing an improved standard of
living and a better environment for its citizens.

China's carbon intensity target is certainly a step in the right
direction, and it provides the right incentives for future improvements
in reducing emissions. Following the U.S.'s own emissions reduction
announcement and the recent bilateral clean energy initiatives
announced during President Obama's visit, we are beginning to see the
outlines for a meaningful framework agreement in Copenhagen and a
foundation for both countries to demonstrate leadership in addressing
climate change.