Knicks

NBA Analysis: Carmelo Anthony Trade Impact

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Carmelo Anthony is finally a Knick.  Following endless rumors since before the season even started, the trade that everyone knew was coming finally came to fruition late Monday night.  Here is how everything shakes out:

Knicks get:  Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman
Nuggets get:  Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Corey Brewer, 2014 1st round pick (NYK), $3 million (NYK)
Timberwolves get:  Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry, $3 million (NYK)

The Knicks traded basically half their roster to get Anthony, but did finally get their man in the end along with Billups to replace Felton as the starting point guard.  In our projections with Anthony and Billups going forward, they won nearly two more games over their remaining 28 (+6.8 percent per game) and improved their playoff chances by 6.2 percent.

NEW YORK KNICKS
WINS
LOSS
%
PLAYOFF

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Before Trade
41.1
40.9
50.1%
87.9%

After Trade
43
39
52.4%
94.1%

FULL SEASON IMPACT
1.9
-1.9
2.3%
6.2%

NEW YORK KNICKS
WINS
LOSS
%
PLAYOFF

Rest of Season (Before Trade)
13.1
14.9
46.8%
87.9%

Rest of Season (After Trade)
15
13
53.6%
94.1%

REST OF SEASON IMPACT
1.9
-1.9
6.8%
6.2%

The big issue for New York going forward will be size.  Gallinari, Mozgov, Curry, and Randolph were the four tallest players on the team.  Now Ronny Turiaf and Shelden Williams are left to man the middle alongside Amare Stoudemire.

Denver did well to gain some nice players and assets despite only one viable destination for Anthony.  Still, the team is left in a tenuous position for this season, and that is precluding any further trades before Thursday’s deadline.  The Nuggets will suit up only nine players Tuesday against Memphis, the biggest direct threat to their playoff spot in the West.

With the trade, the Nuggets’ chances at the playoffs drop -10.8 percentage points to 72 percent, and their per game win percentage drops -5.6 percent.  Denver is projected to win 1.4 fewer wins.  This trade is a boon for Memphis, Phoenix, and Utah who are all vying for the final two playoff positions.

DENVER NUGGETS
WINS
LOSS
%
PLAYOFF

Before Trade
45.4
36.6
55.4%
82.8%

After Trade
44
38
53.7%
72.0%

FULL SEASON IMPACT
-1.4
1.4
-1.7%
-10.8%

DENVER NUGGETS
WINS
LOSS
%
PLAYOFF

Rest of Season (Before Trade)
13.4
11.6
53.6%
82.8%

Rest of Season (After Trade)
12
13
48.0%
72.0%

REST OF SEASON IMPACT
-1.4
1.4
-5.6%
-10.8%

The biggest thing for the Nuggets is that the team can finally move forward from the Carmelo-era as well as earning big savings cash-wise.  The team went from more than $13 million over the luxury tax threshold to below the salary cap saving upwards of $25 million plus.  They also go significantly younger as Mozgov is just 24, Gallinari 22, and Chandler 23.  Felton is nearly eight years younger than Billups, and also comes at half the salary.