Betting Analysis for UFC 130: Complete Preview

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Whether it’s for cash or fantasy MMA glory, sport betting is a great way to get the heart pumping a bit faster during close fights. In my Betting On segment for MMA Valor, I’ll be running over some of the best bets for upcoming events, including comparison betting odds and any prop bets that could spice up your wager ticket.

This information isn’t set in stone, as anything can happen during weigh-ins or after this sheet hits the web, and I’m hardly perfect, but this is a great compliment to your own betting strategy. Any questions or comments are always welcome and can be sent to me over at Twitter @MikeHammersmith, or via the e-mail in the staff section of the site.

While I wish this card was a bit juicer in the wagers department, we’re going to have to work with what we have here. Below are my comparison odds for each fight, which you can match up with your sports book or fantasy MMA odds to see where the value lies.

Quinton Jackson -325

Matt Hamill +230

Valid props: Jackson Inside Distance, Jackson by KO, Hamill by Decision.

While I don’t think Jackson’s heart is in the fight game anymore, Hamill has a style that plays right into his strengths. Jackson has never been out-grappled by a power wrestler like Hamill, and Hamill’s forward movement will cost him when Jackson starts winging counter punches.

Rick Story -125

Thiago Alves -110

Valid props: Fight Goes to Decision

My upset special of the evening, I see Story pushing the pace on Alves and never letting him use his offense. It’s a dangerous game plan, but one that the young man could pull off, stealing this fight via split decision.

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Roy Nelson -160

Frank Mir +130

Valid props: Mir by Decision

No one knows what kind of plan Mir will cook up, but I’m not sure his skills are up to speed with his tactics.  Nelson has one punch power and the willingness to close distance on Mir. At worst, I see Nelson taking a Leonard Garcia-esque decision based on forward movement, while at best I see him knocking Mir silly against the fence.

Jorge Santiago -140

Brian Stann +110

Valid props: Fight Ends Inside Distance, Stann by KO, Fight Of The Night

One of the best matches of the night, this one could be a very bloody affair. While I think Santiago is the more fluid fighter and better finisher of the two, this one is a real toss-up. Bettors beware!

Travis Browne -200

Stefan Struve +160

Valid props: Fight Ends Inside Distance, Browne by KO

If Fight IQ holds, I really can’t see Browne losing this bout. Struve has a weak chin, poor recovery time from getting hit, and doesn’t have the power to hurt Browne reliably. Combine that with Browne’s constant standing pressure and this is a recipe for Struve’s disaster.

Demetrious Johnson -150

Miguel Torres +120

Valid Props: Johnson by Decision, Torres Inside Distance

When this fight was Torres vs. Pickett, I was hoping it would slide under the radar and make us all some serious money. With the world being tuned in to the living lightning bolt in Demetrious Johnson though, our odds never materialized for this one. It’s a close fight, and one that Johnson will either win by riding out the clock on Torres, or Torres will take with a counter strike or bottom game submission. Bet accordingly.

Michael McDonald -260

Chris Cariaso +200

Valid Props: Fight Of The Night, Fight Goes Distance

This is the sleeper fight of the night, as both men are fantastic kickboxers who come prepared for battle.  While Cariaso may actually be the better overall striker, McDonald packs more power and has the far superior mat work.

Renan Barao -300

Cole Escovedo +220

Valid props: Barao by Submission, Escovedo by KO, Fight Ends Inside Distance

While I don’t see Barao as being nearly as good as he’s made out to be, Escovedo isn’t likely the guy to show us that.  While I hate to count Escovedo out, Barao is a viper on the mat, and I see him getting an RNC in a scramble fairly early here.

Kendall Grove -240

Tim Boetsch +180

Valid Props: Grove Inside Distance

Boetsch is a likable enough guy, but not UFC material, whether it be at 205lbs or 185lbs.  Grove has the reach, skill and a vastly superior ground game, while Boetsch doesn’t have the kind of power that’s stopped Grove before.  Grove will likely pick Boetsch apart on the outside before catching him sleeping in the clinch and tapping him, either by guillotine or triangle.

Gleison Tibau ­-280

Rafaello Oliveira +210

Valid Props: None

Two guys on short notice tend to make for very unpredictable fights, and I’d keep my wallet closed for this one.  With that said, I do think Tibau takes this handily, and you might find value on a late KO finish.

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