Listed below are the betting odds for each major league team to reach the LCS. Line% is the translated odds in win percentage form while ACC% is the AccuScore simulation percentage.
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The first thing to notice is that bettors clearly like the favored Yankees, Rays, and Phillies more than AccuScore’s simulations. Those three teams are still projected to be the most likely teams to advance, but our simulations give the underdogs a better chance of advancing which could produce some value.
The biggest different in the betting line and the sim line is with the Phillies. While the Yankees and Rays are basically co-favorites in the American League, Philadelphia is the clear choice in the National League. The betting line though has Philly winning at a nearly 55 percent rate. AccuScore projects the Phillies to still be a strong favorite, but at 42.5 percent giving more credit to the Giants and Braves.
The World Series odds follow a similar vein. The Phillies are the overall favorite because they face weaker competition in the NL, and have the best trio of starters of any of the eight playoff teams. The Yankees and Rays follow, but all three have lower simulation percentages than their translated betting odds. AccuScore has much more faith in the Giants, Twins, and Rangers than do the bettors. With the Giants having the biggest positive difference for the World Series and LCS between the betting and AccuScore lines, they are the best value bet among the non-favorites.