Over the past year, American drivers have found themselves longing for the days when two dollars per gallon seemed expensive. Oil prices are rising at an unprecedented rate, and as a result, many are questioning whether the Earth's available oil supply has reached its peak. Are there still oceans of oil awaiting our discovery? How much pain you'll be feeling at the pump in the future depends on the answer.
This argument says "There is more oil to be had, producing it will keep prices down." This repeats "As Oil Prices Rise, Drilling In Difficult Places Becomes Worthwhile", only there is an additional obstacle holding up production. Please see my previous counter-argument. Here I only summarize:
(1) It doesn't matter how much oil exists anywhere if:
(1a) it can't be produced fast enough to satisfy demand, measured in barrels per day, or
(1b) those "vast reserves" will actually only last a couple of years at our present high rate of consumption (about 21 million barrels per day).
The devil is in those numerical details.
(2) As long as the demand, in barrels per day, out-strips the supply, it is buyers out-bidding each other that drives the price up, not the "evil" oil companies nor OPEC. The latter could be blamed only if they were deliberately with-holding supply from the market, but today I don't think they are. (They can hardly be blamed for selling their own oil to their own people at reduced prices, as that is what "drilling off our coasts" is also advocating.)
(3) Focusing on American proved reserves, those stand at 21 billion barrels, which would last us less than 3 years (but they cannot be produced that fast).
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