Is Global Warming a Crisis?

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An audit the IPCC report finds that:

• Out of the 140 forecasting principles, 127 principles are relevant to the procedures used to arrive at the climate projections in the IPCC report.
• Of these 127, the methods described in the report violated 60 principles.
• An additional 12 forecasting principles appear to be violated, and there is insufficient information in the report to assess the use of 38.
  As a result of these violations of forecasting principles, the forecasts in the IPCC report are invalid.  Specifically:

The Data Are Unreliable.  Temperature data is highly variable over time and space. Local proxy data of uncertain accuracy (such as ice cores and tree rings) must be used to infer past global temperatures.  Even over the period during which thermometer data have been available, readings are not evenly spread across the globe and are often subject to local warming from increasing urbanization.  As a consequence, the trend over time can be rising, falling or stable depending on the data sample chosen.

The Forecasting Models Are Unreliable. Complex forecasting methods are only accurate when there is little uncertainty about the data and the situation (in this case: how the climate system works), and causal variables can be forecast accurately.  These conditions do not apply to climate forecasting.  For example, a simple model that projected the effects of Pacific Ocean currents (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) by extrapolating past data into the future made more accurate three-month forecasts than 11 complex models.  Every model performed poorly when forecasting further ahead.

The Forecasters Themselves Are Unreliable.   Political considerations influence all stages of the IPCC process.  For example, chapter by chapter drafts of the Fourth Assessment Report “Summary for Policymakers” were released months in advance of the full report, and the final version of the report was expressly written to reflect the language negotiated by political appointees to the IPCC.

The conclusion of the audit is that there is no scientific forecast supporting the widespread belief in dangerous human-caused “global warming.”  In fact, it has yet to be demonstrated that long-term forecasting of climate is possible.