raw data

The media does such a poor job reporting news these days, particularly when it comes to the true state of the economy , anyone that considers it important information shouldn't waste a minute on the news, and rather go straight to the source:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release /pdf/empsit.pdf

The headline numbers reported by the media are the "seasonally adjusted", which are close to worthless as far as understanding the true picture is concerned. Not adjusted, unemployment has been flat at 9.5% for several months after peaking and drifting down earlier this year.

When all categories are included, that number is currently 16.3% and did increase in this report, after falling a tenth last month from the high of 16.2% the month before.

Where the nature of unemployment is especially grim is the length of time a worker stays unemployed after losing a job. Those numbers continue to grow every month.

Another gauge of length of time worth looking at is the new claims data released every Thursday:

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/110509.asp

Again, the unadjusted numbers are the ones to look at. With the recent extention approved by Congress, there is likely to be a big jump in those numbers in the next week or two, as those who exhausted their benefits while Congress was dinking around, will be added back in. Assuming it's done that way, the increase may provide some insight into how many people are running out of benefits each week, which is otherwise never reported.

Where the biggest bloodbath in layoffs takes place is roughly between December and February. Temporary holiday help are laid off, new construction falls off a cliff and manufacturing comes to a standstill as retailers ramp down post holiday inventories.

The "seasonal adjustment" factor tends to preload and backload the mass increase related to the holidays and construction. In other words, we won't really know the current situation until after the first part of next year.

It's certainly not good.