The Taiwan Question

Whether confrontation occurs between the US and China will be driven most by how each state manages its relationship with Taiwan. Where the US supports democracy, and is even obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to respond to perceived Chinese use of force against Taiwan, it has been careful not to stack its moral and political commitment to Taiwan against its strengthening trade partnership with China.

China, on the other hand, has consistently sent the message loud and clear that the One China policy is the only policy it recognizes, and the avoidance of domestic embarrassment alone fortifies the country's conviction on this issue.

Although much is at stake for each when it comes to defending its stance on Taiwan's autonomy, the US and China seem to agree that the bigger pot is pursuing what benefits their collaborative partnership may yield. Neithern party is ready to estrange itself from its most important trade partner, and risk losing favorable relations with a handful of directly-related third parties in the process.

As the US and China actively work to genuinely understand each other, there will be little reason to find conflict over this issue. It seems that agreeing to disagree will keep this issue locked in a stalemate for some time.