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Over the past year, American drivers have found themselves longing for the days when two dollars per gallon seemed expensive. Oil prices are rising at an unprecedented rate, and as a result, many are questioning whether the Earth's available oil supply has reached its peak. Are there still oceans of oil awaiting our discovery? How much pain you'll be feeling at the pump in the future depends on the answer.
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The Nature of the Problem
- From Dr Marcel Schoppers
By Dr. Marcel Schoppers - NASA Scientist
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How can these estimates be trusted?
Was the estimated global supply of oil always 3 trillion barrels? Has it changed over time and we have discovered more fields and developed new extraction technologies?
It seems to me the estimate presented as including that which we have not yet discovered, falls short of surety on the ground that we simply don't know what we haven't discovered.
Moreover, what if oil is not, in fact, a remnant of ancient organic matter, but is instead produced deep in the earth's crust, filtering up into the fields we exploit today?
And this notion we are going to have to tell our kids we used up 'their share' - how does one determine what the 'share' of resources belongs to future generations? How many generations forward do we go in dividing up 'shares'?
- Highlander
November 20, 2008 9:47AM
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Side: No
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Your predictions are flawed
The problem is that the reserves are has proven unpredictable. In 1914 the US bureau of mines predicted we would run out of oil in 10 years. In1939 The Dept of Interior predicted we would run out in 13 years and in 1951 they predicted 13 years again. In 1955 it was predicted that we had 35 years of reserve left. Since 1955 this 30-35 year figure has been pretty consistent. What does this mean? The fact is all non-renewable resources are finite. The problem with these predictions is Technology and exploration have been expanding our reserves for years and probably will for some time to come as we tap resources that are presently inaccessible or too expensive. Your predictions are flawed because they don't take into account improved methods of exploration, extraction and utilization of presently inaccessible supplies through as yet undeveloped technological advances. I believe we will never run out now that there is a big push for alternative sources of energy and more efficient use of our existing resources. You can call me an optimist but throughout history Human Kind has done what ever is necessary to survive.
- tbcass
December 18, 2008 4:22AM
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Side: No
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