The Nature of the Problem
Oil exploration is an expensive and time-consuming process. The largest oil fields get found first, meaning the first oil that’s produced is the easiest. Once production ramps up, however, the remaining oil is harder to find, harder to pump, and harder to refine.
This is not like emptying a gas tank, where you can keep driving as though nothing is wrong until the last drop is sucked out. It’s more like sucking juice out of oranges through a straw. Some are juicier than others, but you’ll never get all the juice. After a while you have to suck harder on every orange, and yet you’ll get less out and only become thirstier.
There used to be about 3 trillion barrels of ("conventional" or "light") crude oil on Earth, including estimates of oil fields not even discovered yet. Based on the performance of many known oil fields, only about 2 trillion of those barrels will ever be pumped out of the ground, and the maximum production rate (barrels per day) will be reached when about 1 trillion barrels have been pumped. We’re there today.
We also understand quite well how individual oil fields peter out, as we’ve already seen numerous examples of oil fields collapsing in over 50 countries, including the U.S., Russia, Europe (the North Sea), and most recently Mexico (the Cantarell field).
There are many estimates of when the peak rate of world-wide oil production will occur. Petroleum geologists, engineers and scientists estimate 2000 – 2015, while economists estimate 2015 – 2030 on the assumption that the rising price of oil will make more energy appear almost immediately – the technology will arrive before it is needed, and more/all of the in-ground oil will be produced..My estimate, using statistical techniques over the entire 20th century of technology, with economic booms and busts and world wars, gives 95% confidence that the peak of world-wide oil production will occur in 2004 – 2014.
No matter who’s right, there will be shortages in our life-time, but unlike the oil crises of the 1970’s this time the shortages will not end. We will have to tell our children, “You’ll never get to live like we did, we took your share.”
As noted peak oil expert Dr. Hubbert said, “When the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be.”
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The problem is that the reserves are has proven unpredictable. In 1914 the US bureau of mines predicted we would run out of oil in 10 years. In1939 The Dept of Interior predicted we would run out in 13 years and in 1951 they predicted 13 years again. In 1955 it was predicted that we had 35 years of reserve left. Since 1955 this 30-35 year figure has been pretty consistent. What does this mean? The fact is all non-renewable resources are finite. The problem with these predictions is Technology and exploration have been expanding our reserves for years and probably will for some time to come as we tap resources that are presently inaccessible or too expensive. Your predictions are flawed because they don't take into account improved methods of exploration, extraction and utilization of presently inaccessible supplies through as yet undeveloped technological advances. I believe we will never run out now that there is a big push for alternative sources of energy and more efficient use of our existing resources. You can call me an optimist but throughout history Human Kind has done what ever is necessary to survive.
Was the estimated global supply of oil always 3 trillion barrels? Has it changed over time and we have discovered more fields and developed new extraction technologies?
It seems to me the estimate presented as including that which we have not yet discovered, falls short of surety on the ground that we simply don't know what we haven't discovered.
Moreover, what if oil is not, in fact, a remnant of ancient organic matter, but is instead produced deep in the earth's crust, filtering up into the fields we exploit today?
And this notion we are going to have to tell our kids we used up 'their share' - how does one determine what the 'share' of resources belongs to future generations? How many generations forward do we go in dividing up 'shares'?