Second-Place Candidates Can Win the Presidency under Current System

Under the current system, a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. Under the winner-take-all rule that is currently used by 48 states, all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate winning the state.  The election of a second-place candidate to the White House is not rare.  The second-place candidate was elected in 2000, 1888, 1876, and 1824.  This is a failure rate of 4 in 55 elections, or 1 in 14 elections.  Moreover, since half of all presidential elections have been landslides (a winning margin of 10% or more), the failure rate is 1 in 7 elections among competitive elections.  Starting in 1988, the nation has been in an era of close and competitive elections.  

Moreover, a shift of a handful of votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in five of the last 12 presidential elections.  A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have given Kerry a majority of the electoral votes, despite President Bush’s 3,500,000-vote lead in the nationwide popular vote.  A switch of fewer than 25,000 votes in 2004 in Iowa and Wisconsin would have wiped out President Bush’s majority in the Electoral College.  

The possibility of a second-place candidate winning the Presidency stems from the winner-take-all rule that awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state.