If presidential elections were decided by popular vote instead of the Electoral College, Al Gore would have been elected president in 2000. How we choose a president profoundly impacts how campaigns are run, the importance of swing states and an election’s outcome. It’s certainly no surprise that the Electoral College vs. popular vote controversy has sparked considerable debate. As the issue surfaces heading into November, is it time to graduate from the Founding Father's Electoral College concept, or are popularity contests no way to choose a president?
Under the current system, a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. Under the winner-take-all rule that is currently used by 48 states, all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate winning the state. The election of a second-place candidate to the White House is not rare. The second-place candidate was elected in 2000, 1888, 1876, and 1824. This is a failure rate of 4 in 55 elections, or 1 in 14 elections. Moreover, since half of all presidential elections have been landslides (a winning margin of 10% or more), the failure rate is 1 in 7 elections among competitive elections. Starting in 1988, the nation has been in an era of close and competitive elections.
Moreover, a shift of a handful of votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in five of the last 12 presidential elections. A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have given Kerry a majority of the electoral votes, despite President Bush’s 3,500,000-vote lead in the nationwide popular vote. A switch of fewer than 25,000 votes in 2004 in Iowa and Wisconsin would have wiped out President Bush’s majority in the Electoral College.
The possibility of a second-place candidate winning the Presidency stems from the winner-take-all rule that awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state.
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