Is Global Warming a Crisis?

Is Global Warming a Crisis?

Global warming has quickly become one of the most heated issues in America (pun intended). Rising temperatures and melting icebergs are indisputable evidence that the Earth is warming, but is this global heat wave a man-made crisis or just overblown hype?

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  • Professor Chris
    Do we know it's our fault?

    Well, the overwhelming concensus of scientists say that the earth is getting warmer. It's obviously a crisis, and it seems pretty likely that humans are at the root of it, but I don't think that the scientific community is so unanimous on what's causing global warming, but rather just that it's happening and that it is quite menacing. It's irresponsible to ignore it, whether it is the fault of humanity or not.

    - Professor Chris July 11, 2008 5:36PM

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    • Granny A
      earth has cooled in last 10 years

      If the overwhelming consensus of scientists is that the earth in warming, then they haven't been reading the temperatures for the past 10 years. In any case, science is not made by consensus; it is made by research. Computer models do not constitute research. And to pick one item, carbon dioxide, out of all the multitude of factors that make up climate and claim that it alone determines everything else would be laughable if there were not so much political control and money at stake.

      - Granny AUS December 8, 2008 10:49PM

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      • Coo
        Warming or Cooling

        Either way--the Arctic's are melting, climate is changing, people and animals are suffering and worse. What do we do? Do nothing but argue over the cause or get off our rears and do something?

        - Coo July 24, 2009 10:28PM

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    • ReEnergize Texas
      IPCC says 95% chance we're causing it

      Despite the inane attacks below on consensus, the fact is that the most recent IPCC report says there is a 95% or better chance that the warming that's been observed is caused.

      See this summary of the report posted at wikipedia:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change #IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report:_Climate_Change_2007

      I agree, we need to do something about it. If people would stop just looking for semantic arguments and start looking at the solutions, they might realize that transitioning to clean energy economy would almost certainly create millions of domestic jobs, reduce costs for families and businesses, and reduce harmful pollution that causes disease and distress while also driving up health care costs,

      - ReEnergize TexasUS April 30, 2009 3:38PM

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  • Steve Wrathall
    GW not falsifiable, not scientific.

    Science has nothing to do with consensus, and everything to do with cold, hard reproducible observations.For any claim to be scientific, then its promoters have to be prepared to finish the following sentence:
    "I'll admit I'm wrong if I observe..."
    GW proponents have never offered up such a test of falsifiability AFAIK.

    If you dispute this then I challenge you to state what real world observation(s) would falsify the theory of catastrophic human-induced climate change.

    Also see my youtube vid "unscientific" (username stevewrathall)

    - Steve Wrathall July 24, 2008 3:07PM

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    • F2XL
      I agree

      For something to be science, it must be testable based on naturally observable phenomena. If you deviate from that and say, "We can't test our theory, or else all hell will break lose," then you've left the realm of science and have entered the realm of fear mongering.

      - F2XLUS November 14, 2008 9:13PM

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    • Oliver
      There is just pure science and there are facts of life

      I would agree if the matter of GW is just a matter of scientists which does not concern human life. In such case, being able to falsify is the test.

      But in this case? Can our species rely on good scientific rules when it comes to ensuring a future for our children?

      Jumping from a skyscraper must be regarded as dangerous. This statement may be easily falsified by someone jumping from a building and surviving.

      So, let's give it a try: Take a jump from the top of a high building, and somewhere at the tenth floor you can clearly say: "I falsified it. There is no danger at all."

      I am not quite sure if you would be able to finish the sentence. But the falsification would be correct, would be good science.

      Don't laugh, this is what humans are currently doing in regards to Global Warming.

      When it comes to urgent decision making with an uncertain knowledge base, you have to make assumptions. The assumption "We can change it" should be preferred over "This is not our business" in such a situation.

      - Future doesn't happen. It's made. -

      - Oliver January 29, 2009 2:06PM

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    • ReEnergize Texas
      You Don't Understand Science

      You can't reduce the entire debate which hinges on thousands of pages of scientific documentation to your inability to complete a sentence. Climate scientists have to make numerous falsifiable hypotheses, test those hypotheses, and draw conclusions based on the preponderance of the evidence.

      The fact that 95% or more of scientific inquiries which asked is climate change happening as a result of human produced CO2 have come back saying yes demonstrates that it's almost certainly happening.

      I'll admit I'm wrong if global average temperature trend downward over the study period.

      I'll admit I'm wrong if historic periods of warming and cooling fail to align with historic periods of high and low CO2 concentrations (respectively).

      See, it's not so hard.

      - ReEnergize TexasUS April 30, 2009 3:33PM

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  • Highlander
    Trusting the IPCC

    How does this author explain the scientists who resigned from the IPCC because of the way the final report was polilticized?

    See this: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html , for instance.

    - HighlanderUS September 10, 2008 8:13AM

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  • tomcat2200
    Science has never been on your or any side. Just the funding.

    Not since the flat earth or the steady state universe or the coming ice age, has so little real proof existed, to cause any sort of real consensus. This whole issue is over opinion, and it is opinion alone in which they stand. There are no facts or proof that humans are the cause of anything, or that the warming trend is anything but normal and natural, and likely beneficial.

    Quite frankly the typical climate trend and geologic record is that we are in the cusp of a new ice age, and most of the Global Warming Inc. has come out to say that any global warming will likely cause a new ice age, so they can be right, no matter the outcome. I hate to say it about my contemporary scientists, but Global Warming is a short cut to funding, and a job to way too many searching for a way to support themselves. To scientists not involved in the funding chain it is over inflated. If humans could exercise control (or impact) over the weather, then we would have long ago been doing climate modification, so popular in the old science fiction novels. The fact is that we cannot do either. The amount of energy involved is well beyond the capacity for humans to muster in the total combined output of all human activities.

    The humor of all the hype for the CO2 goes in the face that this planet used to be quite CO2 rich. Were the greenhouse gas myth be true, this planet would never have cooled down, and could never have scrubbed its CO2 levels to the trace that they are. This planet cooled long before the CO2 was no longer a major component of the atmosphere. Water, H2O is by far the strongest greenhouse gas we have, and is by far the strongest influence on climate. I don't hear of any proposals for covering the oceans to prevent warming. CO2 is a trace gas people. It's quantity is negligible. Even 10 times the amount is negligible. It's a birthday candle in a forest fire. The average geologic temperature for this planet is several degrees lower than it is now.

    Ask the simple question of the GW Inc. people as to how much CO2 has to be removed to reduce the temps to whatever level they arbitrarily claim as being normal, and you will find that the numbers are well above the combined human output for the planet. Yes it is backwards from the way they would have you calculate, but it shows how false their "consensus" has wanted you to think about it. We cannot predict a local weather for more than a few days out. What makes you think any climate model is any better at more than a few days much less a few centuries. Traditionally they have predicted the demise of the human race many times over for many decades now, and none of their "predictions" have ever come to pass. I have come to cringe, at every mention of what any "computer model" has ever shown with respect to climate.

    Warming is not "obviously" a crisis. Last time not too long ago the planet was much warmer, and the historical record reported it to be a time of plenty. It was the cooling we have undergone since then, that has caused as much misery as any wars. Lets all enjoy the warmth while we have it. The coming ice age as is indicated by the geologic records will surely test humanities ability to survive. Considering how much resources are being siphoned off over global warming when we have real issues such as pollution, that are more real and more pressing, it is enough to drive people to tears. If we would do what is needed for the reduction of pollution, most if not all of the claims for the global warming would be satisfied.

    - tomcat2200US September 14, 2008 4:19AM

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  • thorleym
    Concensus if for politics, not science

    What does concensus have to do with science? Who ever heard of doing science by concensus? Science is supposed to be about domonstratable, reproducable results. Give me the science, not the concensus.

    Concensus is a tool of religon and politics. The fact that the IPCC has to rely on concensus tells me the IPCC is really more about religon or politics than science. I don't care what a scientist believes, I want to know what he can prove, with rigorous scientific demonstrtion.

    - thorleymUS October 16, 2008 1:21PM

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  • geoff
    The earth is cooling

    The theory of AGW is supported only by theoretical models that have no basis and can be easily manipulated to show whatever outcome the author desires. Climate is a very complex thing to model.

    Here are some important facts.

    The warmest year in the 20th century was 1934.
    The warmest decade was the 1930s.
    Five of the ten warmest years were before 1940 in the 20th century.
    Antarctica has 90% of the worlds ice, and in 2008 has the most ice
    ever recorded (something the press never mentions)
    CO2 is a trace gas, it is less than 4 one hundredths of one percent
    of the atmosphere.
    CO2 as a percent of the atmosphere has only increased 1/10,000th
    since the beginning of industrialization in 1750
    1998 was the second warmest year of the 20th century, but it has been
    cooler every year since even though CO2 levels continue to increase.
    temperatures declined between 1940 and 1975 even thoough CO2 levels
    increased.
    in 2008 US temperatures, as tracked by the National Climate Data Center
    were 0.2 degrees above the 114 year temperature average, there is
    no warming.
    So what drives the climate, the sun. Its output is not constant. It
    caused the warming of the late 20th century and the cooling we now
    experience.

    See this website for all the answers

    www.isthereglobalwarming.com

    - geoffUS January 24, 2009 12:24PM

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  • Arno Arrak
    You don't know climate science - let me help you with it!

    To talk of a global warming crisis when there is no global warming is an oxymoron. Since the middle of the twentieth century there have been only two warming incidents - the super El Nino of 1998 and the twenty-first century high from 2001 to 2007 - and neither was caused by carbon dioxide . The first one really was super - a temperature peak twice as high as a regular El Nino. The twenty-first century high that followed was a period where the temperature stagnated at the El Nino high point. It did not increase as carbon dioxide theory predicted, and eventually came to an end with the arrival of a La Nina cooling period. IPCC model makers do not understand why that warming went away and are going nuts because all their predictions are now coming out wrong. They are coming out wrong because they don't understand what caused of the warming in the first place and are still feeding carbon dioxide into their models. Its cause was temporary injection of warm Indian Ocean water that brought us a supernumerary El Nino in 1998 and the twenty-first century high that followed. But now that it's ended the ENSO system - alternation of warm El Nino and cool La Nina periods - will take over and the carbon dioxide theory of global warming is ready for the ash heap of history. But their models are still churning out GIGO on gigantic supercomputers at Uncle Sam's expense!

    - Arno ArrakUS July 5, 2009 6:53PM

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    • Dale Husband
      Neither do you!

      "Since the middle of the twentieth century there have been only two warming incidents - the super El Nino of 1998 and the twenty-first century high from 2001 to 2007 - and neither was caused by carbon dioxide ."

      This cherry picking ignores the slow and steady warming that occured throughout the 20th Century, as this graph clearly shows:
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from :1900/to:2009/plot/gistemp/from:1900/to:2009/trend

      "The first one really was super - a temperature peak twice as high as a regular El Nino."

      It also had nothing to do with GLOBAL warming, which is long-term. El Nino is a short term and regional event. Please try to learn the difference between WEATHER and CLIMATE, OK?

      "It did not increase as carbon dioxide theory predicted, and eventually came to an end with the arrival of a La Nina cooling period."

      We certainly did not predict that the Sun's activity would drop after 2005. Did anyone?

      "IPCC model makers do not understand why that warming went away and are going nuts because all their predictions are now coming out wrong. They are coming out wrong because they don't understand what caused of the warming in the first place and are still feeding carbon dioxide into their models. Its cause was temporary injection of warm Indian Ocean water that brought us a supernumerary El Nino in 1998 and the twenty-first century high that followed. But now that it's ended the ENSO system - alternation of warm El Nino and cool La Nina periods - will take over and the carbon dioxide theory of global warming is ready for the ash heap of history. But their models are still churning out GIGO on gigantic supercomputers at Uncle Sam's expense!"

      That's a lot of assertions and assumptions, but no evidence. And until you completely debunk the heat retaining properties that CO2 has been thought to have with experimenal evidence that any other scientist can understand and duplicate, you will have no evidence!

      - Dale HusbandUS July 21, 2009 12:57PM

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      • Arno Arrak
        Climate science briefs

        Dale Husband: You need to read my comment of June 28th (Sorry, but doing voodoo science ...etc) to straighten yourself out about experimental evidence on carbon dioxide . Second, that graph is worthless as proof of anything. Third, you don't know what cherry picking is. I am taking the entire half century, not just delectable fruits from it. Fourth, you should know that El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO and returns every four or five years as it has been doing as long as records have been kept. An exception is the super El Nino of 1998 which does not belong to the oscillating ENSO system. Fifth? Download my PDF from ICECAP. It is an older version lacking some things and wrong on others but it should give you a start. The latest version was too large for them to post.

        - Arno ArrakUS July 21, 2009 9:19PM

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        • Dale Husband
          Sorry....

          ....but calling something "voodoo science " just because you disagree with it is meaningless. You must actually DEBUNK the claims. Global warming denialists ALWAYS emphasize some factor in climate change (such as solar output) while ignoring others. THAT is cherry picking!

          Now, I will ask you again: Show me the experimental proof that carbon dioxide has no heat retaining properties that can affect Earth's climate.

          - Dale HusbandUS July 22, 2009 12:39AM

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          • Arno Arrak
            You and Hansen need some respect for the laws of physics

            [1] Calling Hansen's claim "voodoo science " is not an opinion. Let's take it from the beginning: (1) He says that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is responsible for causing the warming trend he claims existed at the time (1988). (2) Checking the temperature record put out by NOAA shows that this warming had a definite beginning. (3) Carbon dioxide had been in the air for decades before this warming started. (4) Hansen's claim is equivalent to stating that carbon dioxide which up to that point had not caused any warming whatsoever suddenly changes its behavior and decides that 1977 is a good year to start warming up the world. There is no law of physics that will permit a gas to behave this way, and that is why I call it voodoo science. Someone else like you might want to call it global warming science, but that's OK with me - it is a distinction without a difference.

            [2] There is a distinction between the physical properties of carbon dioxide and whether it actually does anything in the atmosphere. All gases have "heat retaining properties," usually expressed by enthalpy or heat capacity. What you should have asked is whether carbon dioxide can act as a greenhouse gas, because that is the issue. The answer to it is yes, we know it is capable of it. My point is that this capability is not expressed to any measurable degree in the real world as the behavior of carbon dioxide in Hansen's case clearly shows. It's pretty obvious that if CO2 wasn't warming the world before 1977 it could not have started to do it then either which makes Hansen's entire case into a pack of lies. I am really surprised that so-called "climate experts" have let him get away with it so long. Part of the problem is that despite available equipment NASA has chosen not to measure the infrared transmittance of the atmosphere in a vertical direction directly. Each of the greenhouse gases has a characteristic infrared absorption spectrum and direct monitoring of it as the balloon or plane ascends would give you a direct measure of how active each gas is at each level. But apparently they don't care for or are afraid of the results of direct measurements. They are dealing with a four hundred million dollar slice of the U.S. Government's yearly climate research money and the only output that I see is a collection of worthless "what if" reports and climate simulations that are nothing more than GIGO.

            - Arno ArrakUS July 22, 2009 3:11PM

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            • Dale Husband
              Nice reply....NOT!

              OK, if you insist on completely distorting the issues and not giving me the proof I demanded (experimental evidence that carbon dioxide [CO2] has no heat retaining properties), then I will no longer take you seriously at all. You are a crank.

              We know that CO2 amounts have been increasing over the past several decades. It has been a change in the AMOUNT of CO2, not its properties!

              No one, including James Hansen, has ever claimed that CO2 wasn't warming the world prior to 1977! Are you serious?!

              Ever been to the planet Venus? It atmosphere is full of CO2, which makes it the hottest planet in the Solar System. Even hotter than Mercury (which is closer to the Sun) on its day said, and Venus is even nearly as hot on its NIGHT side, which Mercury is not.

              I've written two essays on the subject of global warming . Both of them are applicable to answering your lame B S, Arno Arrak!

              http://circleh.wordpress.com/2009/01/19/those-terrible-twins-of-climate-change-co2-and-h2o /


              http://circleh.wordpress.com/2009/03/27/carbon-dioxide-and-its-greenhouse-effect /

              - Dale HusbandUS July 22, 2009 3:34PM

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              • Arno Arrak
                Stubborn refusal to face the facts.

                Stubborn refusal to face the facts.
                Looked at your so-called “essays” on global warming . Boy, are you brainwashed! I have seen most of this stuff before which makes me suspect someone’s talking points behind it. Facts cited out of context, not an ounce of science in it, just special pleading. You know nothing about the science of planetary atmospheres but think that you can impress someone by pretending that you do. Trying to relate Venus or Mercury to global warming here and now is a disconnect and unreal. It is not simply stupid but fraudulent to imply that this has any connection with our climate today. Your ignorance of the physics of gases is best demonstrated by your demand to produce “experimental evidence that carbon dioxide [CO2] has no heat retaining properties.” It is impossible to meet this demand because of the nonsensical way it is stated. I am forced to become technical here because of your stubborn refusal to accept simple facts. The “heat” that is “retained” by molecules consists of the kinetic energy of molecular motions. There are three kinds of motions to consider: translational, vibrational, and rotational motions. The energy of an average molecule is equal to kT, where k is Boltzmann’s constant and T the absolute temperature. Equipartition of energy requires that at thermal equilibrium the energy contained in each mode of molecular motion is the same, meaning that molecules gain and lose energy from one another by collisions until each of the modes – translational, vibrational, and rotational – carries about the same amount of kinetic energy as the others do. In your confused way you have been led to think of carbon dioxide as different in some way from other gases, which it is not. What you should know is that the motions involving molecular vibrations and rotations are associated with absorption and emission of infrared radiation. When infrared radiation is absorbed it increases the energy associated with that particular mode of molecular motion. Because of equipartition kT, the average energy of a molecule is raised as gas temperature T goes up. This is what happens when a greenhouse gas like CO2 absorbs infrared radiation emanating from the ground. But absorption is only possible if the gas possesses a vibration-rotation band in the infrared that matches the frequency of outgoing radiation. These absorption bands vary with molecular structure which is why not all gases can act this way. The energy absorbed will eventually distribute itself according to the temperature of its surroundings. And this is all there is to it. There are no other “heat retaining properties” that carbon dioxide or any other gas may have. Now about Hansen. You did not pay close attention to what I said. I said that his claim that the observed warming was caused by carbon dioxide was equivalent to saying that carbon dioxide started his warming career in 1977 when his warming started. Since there was no warming before that time but carbon dioxide was already in the air it follows that it was not warming the air then. What is so hard to understand here? I’ll tell what is hard to understand - it is why all the “climate scientists” have accepted this unfounded, non-sensical, unscientific statement as revealed wisdom from the climate guru of NASA. I will not even talk about the NOAA temperature curve itself which is doctored and bears only an accidental resemblance to real world temperatures.

                - Arno ArrakUS July 23, 2009 10:41AM

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        • Arno Arrak
          Climate science briefs (2)

          There is something stupid about calling a super El Nino "WEATHER" but that's life. And El Nino, by the way, is not a local phenomenon but raises the world temperature by 0.5 degrees Celsius, and one degree if it is a super El Nino. I am simply pointing out this particular super El Nino as a warming incident that is not part of AGW and yet has a strong climatic influence, along with the twenty-first century high. Hansen and others have tried to hang their model temperature curves to them so that they could say their computer models predicted them. That requires them to fake some temperatures but in the end it is a hopeless ploy because they have no idea of what comes next. What comes next is an ENSO world that existed before 1998.
          You also refer to solar activity but I assure you that the sun did not cause the present cooling - it was the La Nina phase of ENSO that caused it. Due to lack of sunspots solar magnetism is at a low level and does not give as much protection against cosmic rays as before. And when more cosmic rays get through they create more condensation nuclei, more cloudines, and hence less sunshine that warms the world. Svensmark came out with that idea in the nineties and Nir Shaviv applied it to ice ages. It may actually have caused the Little Ice Age but I checked the cosmic ray levels in the seventies and could not relate them to temperature. There may be something to it but I am not looking to the Sun (yet!) to do anything spectacular with climate.

          - Arno ArrakUS July 22, 2009 4:50PM

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  • agwscam
    Read and learn...

    Truly one of the most disgusting things you will ever read - the real smoking gun behind the global warming scam;

    http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/climate_money.pdf

    - agwscamUS July 23, 2009 1:38PM

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