Running Away is Not An Option

The answer to the situation is very simple, so let's don't conflate it with what-ifs. I can offer as many equal and opposing what-ifs to suggest that we should leave as you mention here that we shouldn't.

So instead, let's look at what we do know. We know from polling that by staying any longer we will remain as the chief cause of confusion among the Iraqi people. You can't have widespread confusion if you want to hold legitimate elections, and, you can't have a democracy without legitimate elections. The fact the Iraqis are confused and confounded by our continued presence is evident by our own US run opinion polls in Iraq (Iraq Study Group and the Pentagon's). This confusion is what the every day person in Iraq has while they families are being killed, kidnapped, and homes and markets are bombed. This confusion is what is preventing them from getting on with political and social efforts to rebuild the country. The solution is for us to stand aside and monitor from the air with a Gulf contingent military. As soon as we take steps to leave Iraq, we will stop enhancing the government of Iran, allowing the democratic reforms there that were already underway to take place, by the effort of Iranians themselves. Continuing to stay means we'd have the same philosophy of eventually getting rid of Iran as a threat to stability.

Yes, as we depart there will be much internal conflict, civilian deaths, loss of security will result. However the only thing that can turn their situation around is Iraqi nationalists, those who have a vested interest in restoring order for themselves. If they don't want that order restored, then there is nothing further we can do for them anyway. As long as our presence is visible, we will instead create more problems. The Iraqi people did not ask us to save them before we invaded, and today they are still not asking us to save them.

Iraq isn't the same as Vietnam, but both were catastrophes only seen as such in hindsight. I can tell you what is more likely to happen in Iraq given the circumstances - look no further than Israel and Palestine. Years of territorial disputes and terrorism and civil war, a situation like this is the best possible reality for Iraq if we stay - endless attacks and random bombings. Why? Because both Iraq and Israel/Palestine involve roughly the same kind of US interference, whether in the form of military aid and moral support in the UN, or, our military presence in Iraq. We need to accept the fact that all third world countries are going to have a degree of corruption unacceptable to our taste, but like any other, they have a population with unique issues only they are equipped to tend to, and should struggle through it for themselves. The United States is seen as the world's supreme guarantor of democracies, therefore, what we actually offer is not security, but a corrupting effect on otherwise less corruptible, struggling democracies.