Have We Reached Peak Oil?

Have We Reached Peak Oil?

Over the past year, American drivers have found themselves longing for the days when two dollars per gallon seemed expensive. Oil prices are rising at an unprecedented rate, and as a result, many are questioning whether the Earth's available oil supply has reached its peak. Are there still oceans of oil awaiting our discovery? How much pain you'll be feeling at the pump in the future depends on the answer.

Next question in Society

  • “Yes”
  • No Objections Yet

Dr Marcel Schoppers

Oil Discovery and Production Understood in Gory Detail

Dr. Marcel Schoppers

NASA Scientist

Sizes of oil fields are measured very carefully and with a lot of technology. But oil reserves are usually exaggerated: oil companies' shares are worth more for larger reserves, and OPEC countries can sell more oil if they have more. (When this policy was begun in 1985, each OPEC country’s claimed reserves suddenly jumped 50% – 100%, and the subsequent 20 years of subtraction have made no dent in those reserves! See figure below.) So, we hear about more oil than there is. Estimates are updated periodically as the truth comes out.

As oil discovered long ago is eventually produced, this casts more light on what was actually discovered, and how much can be practically extracted. There are over 41,000 known oil fields, of which a few hundred carry the world’s oil supply, while the other 40,000 have given us "learning experiences". We are now far enough along, on both the discovery and production curves, to have good estimates of the world's total "ultimately recoverable resources" (URR) – subject to the ongoing exaggerations from OPEC countries, of course.

The consensus is an URR of 2 trillion barrels. About half of that has been pumped up, so we must be close to the middle of the bell-curve for oil production in each year, and a fall-off in production is imminent.

Evidence

IcolinkLink
Sizes and Numbers of Known Oil Fields
IcoimageImage
Logistic Curve and its Derivative
Exhibita_main
IcoimageImage
A Model of Oil Field Sizes
Ov
Even the sizes of oil fields follow a well known model, which allows to estimate how much oil is yet to be discovered (if we only knew where). But as the fields get smaller, they become less cost-effective to produce, so the likelihood that more oil exists does NOT mean that that oil will be plentiful and cheap.
IcoimageImage
History of OPEC Reserves (Claimed)
Opec_reserves_main
OPEC countries claimed much larger reserves in 1985-6, to give themselves larger production quotas. There were no new discoveries to justify these claims.
Post a Comment

Next Argument Previous Next

Have We Reached Peak Oil?

Loading
  • Yes
  • No
Vote
View Results

Ask Your Friends to Vote

Spotlight

Loading
  • Diana Furchtgott-Roth
    Diana Furchtgott-Roth is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and directs the Center for Employment Policy. From February 2003 to April 2005 Ms. Furchtgott-Roth... More

Subscribe to Opposing News

Biweekly updates on new debates and experts

Loading
Thank you for signing up

Please check your email to confirm your subscription.