The reasons for invading Iraq in 2003 have been debated and analyzed in full. But no matter what conclusions you've made, the U.S. is now left with a serious situation that deserves careful attention. We must determine how long -- or even if -- the military stays. Is it time to start bringing troops home or is more time needed to complete our goals?
Anarchy in Iraq and the possible breakup of the country into autonomous regions would severely affect Iraq’s oil exports. In 2005, Iraq produced about 1.9 million barrels per day (MBD) of oil and exported about 1.4 MBD. By June 2006, Iraqi oil production had risen to 2.5 MBD, and it has been on the rise ever since. A U.S. withdrawal would undermine the security of oil pipelines and other facilities and increase the vulnerability of Iraqi oil production to sabotage. The resulting drop in Iraqi oil exports would increase the upward pressure on world oil prices in an already tight oil market. Energy uncertainty would be increased further if Iraq splintered and Iran gained domination over a Shia-dominated rump state in the oil-rich south.
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