If presidential elections were decided by popular vote instead of the Electoral College, Al Gore would have been elected president in 2000. How we choose a president profoundly impacts how campaigns are run, the importance of swing states and an election’s outcome. It’s certainly no surprise that the Electoral College vs. popular vote controversy has sparked considerable debate. As the issue surfaces heading into November, is it time to graduate from the Founding Father's Electoral College concept, or are popularity contests no way to choose a president?
Campaign consultants now admit that they only care what voters think in a small number of states. The campaigns don’t even bother polling in most states. One consultant for Senator McCain recently acknowledged that the 2008 presidential campaign will likely focus on just three states, and around one particular issue (the economy) that is particularly important in those states:
“It’s not whether he wins or loses the issue nationally, it’s whether he wins it in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, said of the economy. That’s the turf Mr. McCain aims to occupy while Mr. Obama travels.
But not all states face the same economic problems. While manufacturing, steel production, and coal mining play a big role in the economies of these three states, other states are more dependent upon agriculture, high-tech, oil-drilling, or tourism for their jobs.
And it’s not just economic policy that gets distorted by the current system. The U.S. policy toward Cuba, for instance, is heavily driven by the fact that voters of Cuban origin are a swing constituency in the swing state of Florida. Many residents of New Orleans feel that Florida commands greater attention during hurricanes than Louisiana did after Katrina. Another example is environmental issues, which are routinely downplayed by presidential candidates during general elections because coastal states that strongly support environmental protection happen to be safe states whereas rust-belt states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, play swing roles in presidential races as do natural resource extraction states such as West Virginia. Ethanol subsidies and corn growers receive great attention due to the role of Iowa in both primary and general presidential elections, but wheat growers in Nebraska get ignored.
If every vote counted equally and the winner of the national popular vote was elected president, then all the issues that American’s care about would be addressed.
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