Allies in Jeopardy

The chief beneficiary of a rapid U.S. pullout would be Iran, which still has considerable influence over the dominant Shiite political parties, which represent most Iraqi Shiites (about 65 percent of the population). If Iraq imploded, Iran quickly could gain dominance over an emerging “Shiastan” rump state endowed with the bulk of Iraq’s oil reserves. This would give Iran additional resources and a staging area to escalate subversive efforts targeted at the Shiite majority in Bahrain and Shiite minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These and other countries look to the United States to serve as a guarantor against an aggressive Iran. If the United States fails to follow through on its commitment to establish a stable government in Iraq, it will severely undermine its credibility. Abandoning Iraqi allies would erode the confidence of other allies in U.S. leadership (particularly in Pakistan where they eye U.S. calls to take on the Taliban with some degree of skepticism) and further fuel conspiracy theories about American plots to carve up Iraq to keep Arabs weak and divided.