A Humanitarian Catastrophe

Iraq is a mosaic of ethnic, sectarian and tribal subgroups. Baghdad and other major cities include significant intermingling of Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Kurds, Turcomans, Assyrians, Chaldeans and other Christians. Instability and civil war would put many of these people to flight, creating a vast humanitarian crisis that would dwarf those seen in Bosnia and Kosovo and rival the scenes of horror and privation witnessed in Cambodia, Congo, Rwanda and Sudan. Not only would Iraqis again be put at risk of disease, starvation, and violence, but with the government unable to meet their basic needs, the Iraqi refugees would fall under the control of the sectarian militias, turning Iraq into Lebanon on steroids.

A continued U.S. military presence cannot ensure success in Iraq unless Iraqis cooperate in building an effective government. But a precipitous withdrawal of U.S. support would unquestionably reintroduce the potential for failure, with disastrous results for Iraq, its neighbors and U.S. national interests.

The alternative is to finish the job by completing the training of Iraqi security forces, supporting Iraq’s new democratic government, beginning the disciplined reduction of American forces, and turning the future of Iraq over to the only people who can ensure the nation’s long-term success -- the Iraqis.

While Iraq has made remarkable progress over the past year in virtually every category, including security, economic growth, humanitarian issues and governance, the outcome is still in doubt. The U.S. military presence remains, for the moment, an indispensable stabilizing force; its effective employment in training and supporting Iraqi security forces, defeating al-Qaeda, and improving security conditions so that refugees can return to their homes is important in helping the Iraqis achieve peace and stability. While the long-term presence of American combat troops is not in the interests of the United States or the Iraqi government, how U.S. troops leave Iraq (when the country is clearly on the path to peace and stability) is much more important than when the troops come home.